Ole Miss vs Texas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 7 Ole Miss visits AP No. 19 Texas in the week's only ranked-vs-ranked night game in Austin. Trinidad Chambliss and Arch Manning headline a 52.5-total showdown.

01The Matchup

The nightcap under the lights in Austin is the week's only AP Top 25 matchup between two ranked teams, and it pairs two offenses built around their quarterbacks. AP No. 7 Ole Miss in the AP Top 25 is 5-1 behind Trinidad Chambliss, a Heisman contender who powers an offense scoring 37.5 points per game with 290.7 passing yards per game, with running back Kewan Lacy balancing the attack.

AP No. 19 Texas in the AP Top 25 is 4-2 and wins the other way: the Longhorns allow just 17.8 points per game, have 19 sacks behind edge rusher Colin Simmons, and ask quarterback Arch Manning, throwing to receivers like Cam Coleman and Emmett Mosley V, to do enough with an offense scoring 30.2 points per game. Texas is favored by 3.5 at home largely on defense and venue. Ole Miss has the more explosive team and the more decorated quarterback. Something has to give in the fourth quarter.

02Key Factors

First, Chambliss against the Texas pass rush is the game's defining duel. The Longhorns have 19 sacks and allow 17.8 points per game, while Ole Miss gives its quarterback a quick passing game at 8.0 yards per attempt; if Simmons and the Texas front force Chambliss off his first read, the Rebels' offense loses its rhythm.

Second, Texas's ground game is its soft spot: 135.0 rushing yards per game at 3.6 per carry means Manning has to win this with his arm against a defense that knows it, and Texas has scored only 11 passing touchdowns all season. Third, Ole Miss's defense is the risk in the road underdog case, allowing 23.8 points per game, the weakest mark among this week's top-10 teams. But the Rebels' +13.7 scoring margin is a touch better than Texas's +12.4, and in a game between near-equals, catching 3.5 with the better offense is a strong starting position.

03The Pick

Take Ole Miss +3.5. Our numbers project Texas by 2, with a projected score of Texas 27, Ole Miss 25, so the Rebels cash with a close loss or an outright win, and only a Texas win by four or more beats the ticket.

The hook above the field goal is the point: these teams are statistically almost identical, Ole Miss owns the better scoring margin and the more productive quarterback, and Texas's offense, at 30.2 points per game with a 3.6 yards per carry run game, has not shown it can create separation against a quality opponent. Austin at night is a real edge and the Texas defense is legitimately good. It should produce a one-score game, and in a one-score game the side getting 3.5 with Chambliss is the side to hold.

Before you go, take a look at our thoughts on who covers in Iowa vs Minnesota.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.