Broncos vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Oct 25, 2026
Denver is 4-2 and favored by 4.5 on the road, while Arizona is 2-4 and allows 29.7 points per game. The total is 43.5.
01The Matchup
Denver brings the better record to Glendale at 4-2, but the offensive profile is surprisingly thin for a road favorite. The Broncos gain only 259.0 yards per game, the lowest mark in this group, with 174.8 passing yards at 5.6 yards per attempt and 84.2 rushing yards at 3.4 per carry, scoring 19.0 points per game.
Arizona is 2-4 and gains 318.8 yards per game with 222.5 passing yards and 96.3 rushing yards, scoring 21.0 points per game. The Cardinals problem is the other side, allowing 29.7 points per game compared with 20.8 for Denver, which is why the Broncos are favored despite moving the ball less.
Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,328 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions for Arizona, and Trey McBride has been his most frequent target with 49 catches for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Denver counters on the ground with J.K.
Dobbins, who has 81 carries for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns, though the Broncos rushing average as a team remains modest. The interesting tension is volume against efficiency: Arizona completes 66.8 percent of its passes and converts 39.3 percent on third down, while Denver completes 60.3 percent and converts only 31.6 percent, so the home team may actually sustain drives better if it avoids the interception column.
02Key Factors
Denver defense against Brissett is the first test. The Broncos have 18 sacks, 36 tackles for loss and 7 interceptions, with 10 takeaways and a plus 4 turnover differential.
Arizona has given the ball away 6 times and Brissett has 6 interceptions in his line, so Denver will look to turn pressure into short fields for an offense that needs them at 19.0 points per game. Arizona has 14 sacks and 32 tackles for loss of its own, and against a Denver passing game at 5.6 yards per attempt, the Cardinals can crowd shorter routes and force longer drives.
McBride volume is the second test, because 49 catches in 6 games means Arizona designs touches for him regardless of coverage. If McBride moves the chains, Arizona can keep Denver off balance and protect a defense allowing 29.7 points per game by limiting possessions.
Dobbins at 270 rushing yards needs to give Denver balance, but at 3.4 yards per carry as a team the Broncos have not shown they can grind out a road cover. Penalties are close, 44 for Denver and 41 for Arizona, so hidden yardage is unlikely to decide it. The deciding question is whether Denver offense can finally outscore its yardage, on the road, by more than a field goal.
03The Pick
The pick is Cardinals +4.5. Editorial pick: Denver is the better defensive team, but a road favorite gaining 259.0 yards per game and converting 31.6 percent on third down should not be trusted to create margin. The model projection is Cardinals 22, Broncos 23, a 1 point win for Denver against a market line of Broncos -4.5, which gives an edge of 3.5 points for Arizona.
Losing by 1 covers Cardinals +4.5 comfortably, because an underdog losing by less than the spread covers. Brissett and McBride give Arizona enough passing volume at 222.5 yards per game to trade scores, and the 43.5 total fits a one score finish. Denver can win this game and still fail to cover, which is exactly what the projection shows.
Editorial pick (not a model pick). Denver gains only 259.0 yards per game and converts 31.6 percent on third down, too thin to lay 4.5 on the road.
MODEL EDGE +3.5 PTS PLAY TO CARDINALS +1.5Game information
| DATE | Sunday, October 25, 2026 |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 4:05 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | CBS |
| VENUE | State Farm Stadium, Glendale |
| SPREAD | Cardinals +4.5 |
| TOTAL | 43.5 |
| MONEYLINE | Broncos -238 |
Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.