Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC 334

Caio Borralho has beaten three straight ranked middleweights on the cards. Yousri Belgaroui has knocked out all three men the UFC has put in front of him, and he is four inches taller with four inches more reach.

The Matchup

Caio Borralho, ranked No. 5 at middleweight, has built his place the slow way. His last three fights are unanimous decisions over Reinier de Ridder, Nassourdine Imavov and Jared Cannonier, three ranked men beaten over fifteen and twenty-five minutes with patience and control. Nine of his eighteen wins have gone to the judges. He lands a modest 3.47 significant strikes a minute, absorbs 2.61, defends 76 percent of takedowns, and his average fight runs 14:09, because his fights happen at the pace he chooses.

Yousri Belgaroui refuses other people's paces. He is 11-3 with nine knockouts, five of them in the first round, and his six-fight win streak has carried straight through his UFC run: a third-round knockout of Bekoev in his debut last October, a third-round knockout of Abdul-Malik in March, and a first-round knockout of Santos in September. He lands 6.44 significant strikes a minute at 63 percent accuracy, absorbs only 2.28, and at 6'6" with a 79-inch reach he is the bigger man in every exchange, four inches taller and four inches longer than Borralho.

Key Factors

The class gap is real, and it belongs to Borralho. Imavov sits third in this division, and Borralho beat him over five rounds. Nobody on Belgaroui's win list carries that weight, and Borralho's clinch and control game is built to slow a striker down, lean on him, and turn a firefight into the kind of long, managed fight his record is full of. If Borralho gets his hands on Belgaroui early and keeps him there, the power never gets to speak.

But Borralho's offense is a low flame, and that is where the favorite's case starts to look thin. He wins rounds by accumulation against men who let him settle, and Belgaroui does not settle: he throws nearly twice Borralho's volume, connects at a higher rate, and has ended nine fights with his hands.

Borralho has to cross four extra inches of reach to start every clinch, against a striker who defends 64 percent of what comes back and has never let a UFC opponent hear the final horn. One clean entry is all Belgaroui needs, and Borralho has to make a dozen of them.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.