Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC 334

Bia Mesquita has submitted all three of her UFC opponents and six of her eight career wins. Macy Chiasson is five inches taller, unbeaten in three straight against ranked bantamweights, and defends takedowns at sixty-three percent.

The Matchup

Bia Mesquita, ranked No. 11 at bantamweight, is the most decorated grappler in the division, and her UFC record so far is a submission highlight reel: Alekseeva in the second round of her debut last October, Rendon in the first round in March, and Mullins in the first round in June. Six of her eight career wins are submissions. She averages 3.57 takedowns and 3.57 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, absorbs only 1.27 significant strikes a minute because her fights go to the mat so fast, and her average fight lasts 4:12.

Macy Chiasson, ranked No. 14, is the physical problem standing in front of that streak. She is 5'11" with a 72-inch reach, five inches taller and four and a half inches longer than Mesquita, the biggest frame in the division.

Her last three fights are unanimous decisions over Ailin Perez, Yana Santos and Vieira, three ranked bantamweights beaten back to back, and she defends 63 percent of takedowns while averaging 1.87 of her own per fifteen minutes. She has been in the UFC since 2018 and has seen every style the division has.

Key Factors

Mesquita's threat is not complicated, and it has not needed to be. One completed takedown has been enough in every UFC fight she has had, because her top game moves straight to the finish. Chiasson's 63 percent takedown defense is a solid number, but it was not built against a grappler of this level, and a defense rate only has to fail once in fifteen minutes for Mesquita's whole game to land.

Chiasson's counter is size, time and opposition. Mesquita's three UFC wins came against women ranked below this fight's level, and none of them could make her work standing for a full round.

Chiasson can: she is longer, she is stronger in the clinch, and her three straight wins over ranked opponents were all fifteen-minute fights, exactly the distance Mesquita has never had to travel in the UFC. Every minute this stays standing or pressed against the fence with Chiasson leaning on her, the submission clock runs down and the bigger woman's rounds pile up.

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