Cal State Northridge Matadors vs Wichita State Shockers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Wichita State opens its season at Charles Koch Arena against a Cal State Northridge team that won 20 games last season, plays fast, and brings a senior guard who closed last year in the Big West tournament playing the best ball of his career.
The Matchup
Wichita State opens its season at home on Wednesday night, a 14.5-point favorite over Cal State Northridge at Charles Koch Arena, with a total of 161.5, on ESPN+. Neither team has played a game yet, so the honest starting point is last season. Wichita State finished 24-12, scoring 78.1 points a game and allowing 70.8. Cal State Northridge finished 20-14, scoring 81.4 and allowing 79.8. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
The contrast is the game. Northridge played fast and loose in the Big West, scoring in the eighties and giving most of it back. Wichita State won with defense in the American, holding teams under 71 a night and grinding out 24 wins. The Shockers bring back real pieces from that team. Michael Gray Jr. scored 13 points with 6 rebounds and 6 assists against Tulsa in the conference tournament last March, and William Berg came off the bench in the same game for 13 points and 14 rebounds.
Northridge's counter is Josiah Davis, a senior guard who closed last season playing his best basketball. Davis scored 26 points with 8 assists at UC Irvine in the Big West tournament, a day after 14 points and 9 assists against UC San Diego. He is the kind of lead guard who keeps a road underdog organized when the building gets loud, and Northridge will need exactly that in one of the loudest mid-major gyms in the country.
Key Factors
The total tells the first part of the story. At 161.5, the market expects a high-possession game, and that is Northridge's natural habitat. The Matadors averaged 81.4 points a game last season and allowed 79.8, a profile that produces long, loose games with a lot of possessions. More possessions for a big underdog means more chances to trade baskets and stay inside a two-touchdown number, and fewer chances for one cold stretch to end the argument.
The second factor is the size of the gap itself. Wichita State was the better team last season by a clear margin, outscoring its opponents by about 7 points a night, against under 2 for Northridge. That is a real edge, and at home it should produce a win. It is not obviously a 14.5-point edge against a 20-win team with a senior point guard, in a season opener, when rotations are unsettled and nobody has seen live competition since March.
The honest counterpoint is the building and the glass. Charles Koch Arena is a genuinely hard place for a visiting team to shoot, and Berg gives Wichita State a size finisher that Northridge, which defended poorly last season, may not be able to keep off the boards. If the Matadors' first shots do not fall and the crowd gets into the game early, this can absolutely run away from them. The pick is not that Northridge is better. It is that the number asks Wichita State to be nearly perfect in November.
Wichita State should win its opener at home, but this number asks a lot of a team playing its first game since March. Northridge scores, plays fast, and has a senior guard who has run big games before, and openers are rarely clean enough to lay two touchdowns. Take Cal State Northridge Matadors +14.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/4) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | Charles Koch Arena, Wichita |
| Spread | Wichita State Shockers -14.5 |
| Total | 161.5 |
| Moneyline | Wichita State Shockers -1,100 |
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