CF Montréal vs Charlotte FC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Charlotte are at home against a Montreal side that has spent all season leaking goals on the road, and the visitors arrive without the one forward who has carried their scoring.

The Matchup

Charlotte get this one at home, which matters more here than in most pairings. Charlotte were a different side at Bank of America Stadium all season, winning 8 of 15 at home and conceding only 16 goals in those 15 games, with Kristijan Kahlina in goal behind a back line that rarely had to chase games. Montreal took the opposite route here. They won only 2 of 15 on the road and conceded 39 goals in those 15 away games, the kind of record that turns one early mistake into a long night.

The confirmed sides sharpen that picture. Charlotte lead the line with Idan Toklomati, with Pep Biel playing off him, and Montreal's attack is thinner than expected: Alexis Sánchez and Dante Sealy, the two players Montreal were expected to ask to carry the attack, are both on the bench, captain Samuel Piette is a substitute as well, and Daniel Ríos leads a line that is missing its main scorer, because Prince Owusu is already ruled out.

Owusu scored 15 of Montreal's 36 league goals this season, and the league status report lists him out with a lower-body injury. The next Montreal scorer, Daniel Ríos, has 6. That is the whole shape of this game. Charlotte can press a fragile away defense with two proven finishers, and Montreal have to find goals from players who have not produced them all year.

Key Factors

Toklomati and Biel give Charlotte two separate problems to solve. Toklomati has 14 goals this season and Biel has 13, and both started in the 3-2 loss at Portland on October 25, when Charlotte scored twice on the road. Montreal's away defending has not held up against far weaker attacks.

They lost 3-0 at home to Atlanta on October 14 and 2-0 at home to Nashville on October 24 to close the season, and the away pattern never changed at any point in the year. The honest counterpoint is Charlotte's own recent form. Dean Smith's side have won once in their last five, they conceded in the final minutes at Portland after pulling level, and a team that gives up late goals can let a comfortable night turn tense.

Montreal also beat Cincinnati 3-1 on September 26, a reminder that they can punish a favorite that switches off. But that win came at home with Owusu leading the line. Without him, Montreal's road attack scored 17 goals in 15 away games all season, and Charlotte's home defense is the strongest unit in this matchup. If Charlotte score first, Montreal have to open up, and that is when this gets away from them.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.