Charleston Cougars vs USC Trojans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 3 USC beat Utah State by 78 on Sunday night, and the market answered by pushing this spread from 35.5 all the way to 46.5. Charleston arrives 2-0 with a 27-win season behind it, and the question is not who wins. It is how long USC keeps its foot down.

The Matchup

USC has opened the season like a team in a hurry. The Trojans are 2-0, with a 100-68 win over UNLV and a 118-40 win over Utah State on Sunday night, and they have scored 109.0 points per game while allowing 54.0. JuJu Watkins was the best player in the building both nights: 21 points against UNLV, then 32 points and 16 rebounds against Utah State.

The help is real, too. Jazzy Davidson scored 23 points on 10 of 11 shooting against UNLV, and Saniyah Hall has opened with 22 and 20 in the two games. Watkins, Davidson and Hall carry no injury designations for Tuesday.

Charleston arrives with a quieter version of the same start. The Cougars are 2-0, beating Berry 92-43 and Charleston Southern 71-54, and they have scored 81.5 points per game while allowing 48.5. Isla Juffermans has scored 15 points in both games and took over the glass against Berry with 16 rebounds.

Janna Vogelaar added 16 points in the opener and 12 points with 9 rebounds on Saturday, and Anilys Rolon hit six 3-pointers on her way to 19 points against Charleston Southern. Juffermans, Vogelaar and Rolon carry no injury designations for Tuesday.

Two games say only so much, and last season argues for respecting Charleston more than this market does. The Cougars went 27-6 last season, scoring 74.0 points per game and allowing 58.8, the best team in the Coastal Athletic Association.

USC's last season looked nothing like this week: the Trojans went 18-14 through the Big Ten, scoring 69.7 and allowing 64.2. Watkins has raised the ceiling since, and the jump in the early numbers is real. But a Charleston team that won 27 games on defense is a different test from a Utah State team USC just beat by 78, and the Cougars have had since Saturday to prepare while USC played on Sunday night.

Key Factors

The market has already voted, pushing USC from a 35.5-point favorite to 46.5 after Sunday's rout. That move is the bet. Nobody doubts USC wins; the question is whether the Trojans keep pressing a game they have already won, with a trip to play South Carolina waiting on Sunday. Watkins played 27 minutes against Utah State in a game that was over by halftime, and USC's rotation will decide this spread in the fourth quarter, one way or the other.

Charleston's path runs through the glass and the arc. UNLV outrebounded USC 40-35 in the opener, so the Trojans can be beaten to second chances, and Juffermans just grabbed 16 rebounds in a game. Extra possessions are how a heavy underdog bleeds the clock and stays inside a number this size.

The shooting has to travel with her: Rolon made six 3-pointers on Saturday and Dakara Merthie made four of five from deep against Berry, scoring 20 points off the bench. If Charleston is trading threes for twos, 46.5 points is a long way for USC to run.

The danger is just as obvious. Charleston turned the ball over 20 times against Berry and 17 more against Charleston Southern, and neither of those teams defends like USC. The Trojans forced 18 turnovers on Sunday, and a live-ball turnover against them is a layup going the other way.

If Charleston's guards cannot get the Cougars into their offense, this is a rout by the third quarter and the points never come into it. The pick rests on Charleston being a winning team that takes better care of the ball than its first two box scores say.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.