Utah State Aggies vs USC Trojans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 3 USC scored 100 points in Las Vegas behind Jazzy Davidson, Saniyah Hall and a returning JuJu Watkins, and Utah State arrives in Los Angeles at 1-1 after giving the ball away 31 times at home. Sunday at the Galen Center, the Trojans are favored by 44.5, and the only real question is how long the Aggies can keep the night ordinary.

The Matchup

USC's season began with a party in Las Vegas. The Trojans, ranked No. 3, beat UNLV 100-68 on Monday, shooting 59 percent as a team in their only game so far. Jazzy Davidson scored 23 points on 10-of-11 shooting with 5 rebounds and 4 assists.

JuJu Watkins scored 21 in her first game back after missing last season with an injury, and Saniyah Hall scored 22 on 7-of-8 shooting. Davidson, Watkins and Hall carry no injury designations for Sunday, and the Galen Center gets its first look at all three together in the home opener.

Utah State's week has been harder and quieter. The Aggies beat Westminster 61-45 at home, then lost to Loyola Marymount 70-45 in Logan, turning the ball over 31 times in the loss. Nicole Ogun scored 19 points with 11 rebounds against Westminster and 8 points with 8 rebounds against Loyola Marymount.

Sami Mancini, who comes off the bench, grabbed 13 rebounds in the opener and 9 more in the second game. Ogun and Mancini carry no injury designations. Former USC guard Aaliyah Gayles now plays for Utah State and scored 2 points in 7 minutes against Loyola Marymount, a small subplot in a game that will not be decided by subplots.

Last season explains the size of the number. USC finished 18-14, scoring 69.7 points per game and allowing 64.2, in a year played without Watkins. Utah State finished 6-24, scoring 59.0 and allowing 68.4. The Aggies were one of the weakest teams in their part of the sport last season, and nothing in a split week against Westminster and Loyola Marymount argues they have closed much of the distance. What they have is size inside and a short memory, and Sunday they need both.

Key Factors

The number is the story, because USC does not need to be at its best to win this game, only to keep caring. A spread in the mid-40s asks the favorite's starters to keep building a margin deep into a game that was decided in the first quarter, in a home opener, with a freshman class the crowd came to celebrate.

USC's own opener offers the caution: the Trojans gave up 21 offensive rebounds to UNLV and were outrebounded 40-35 in a game they won by 32. A favorite that gets casual on the glass leaves back doors open all night.

Utah State's path is narrow but real. Ogun and Mancini give the Aggies two genuine rebounders, and a team that holds the ball and shortens the game does not need many breaks to stay inside a number this size. The Aggies' problem is that they have made 2 three-pointers in two games, 1 in each, and a team that cannot score from outside has no way to answer a run except by slowing the next possession.

The counterpoint is the turnover count. Utah State gave the ball away 31 times against Loyola Marymount, a good team and not USC. If the Trojans' pressure produces anything like that number, the Aggies will spend the night inbounding under their own basket after made layups, and 44.5 points of cushion can vanish in a hurry. USC scored 100 points in its opener with three players over 20, and this roster has more scorers than Utah State has defenders.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.