Chelsea vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Bottom-of-the-table Sunderland host Chelsea at the Stadium of Light on Sunday, three days after a European night, with both first-choice centre backs missing and one win all season. Chelsea arrive fourth and rested, but without their joint top scorer.

The Matchup

Sunderland come into Sunday bottom of the Premier League, twentieth with 5 points from nine matches and one win all season, and their home form explains the position. At the Stadium of Light they have scored once in four matches, beating Fulham 1-0 in August and drawing blanks against Arsenal, Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds United, and Brian Brobbey, their top scorer with 3 goals, got every one of them in a single match, the 5-3 defeat at Manchester City in September. Enzo Le Fée has 2 goals and a team-high 16 shots, but the support around Brobbey is thin, and Sunderland are winless in five, with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded across that run.

Chelsea arrive fourth with 16 points and five wins from nine, carrying the far stronger attack. They have scored 19 goals, Morgan Rogers has 5 of them, and Cole Palmer, with 3 goals, 3 assists and 28 shots, remains the player everything runs through. The wobble is on the road. Chelsea have conceded 7 goals in four away matches, losing 3-0 at Brentford and 2-1 at Arsenal either side of wins at Fulham and Everton, so a fourth-place side still gives up chances when it travels.

Neither club has named its side yet. Sunderland are expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 beaten 3-1 at Coventry City, Robin Roefs in goal, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki and Le Fée across midfield and Brobbey leading the line, but the back line has to change.

Omar Alderete, who started at Coventry, is suspended after his late red card in that match, and Dan Ballard is out with a hamstring injury, so Nordi Mukiele is expected back after missing Coventry under the concussion protocol. Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle are also out.

Chelsea are expected to keep the side that beat Manchester United 2-0, Mike Penders in goal behind Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana, with Palmer, Moisés Caicedo and Roméo Lavia in midfield and Pedro Neto, Rogers and Estêvão across the front. João Pedro, Chelsea's joint top scorer with 5 goals and 3 assists in six matches, is out with a thigh injury, Reece James and Maxence Lacroix are also out, and Emiliano Martínez is a doubt after jaw surgery, so Penders is expected to continue in goal.

Key Factors

The week shapes this game as much as the table does. Sunderland played Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday night, three days before this kickoff, with a squad already missing its two first-choice centre backs. Chelsea have not played since October 31. A tired home side with a patched-up defence does not chase a game like this. It sits in, protects its box and hopes, and Sunderland's home matches have followed that script all season: four games, five goals in total, and none of them reaching three.

The counterpoint is Chelsea's own away defence and the scorer they are missing. Chelsea have conceded in three of their four away matches, and without João Pedro their attack leans harder on Rogers and Palmer, so the control they want is not guaranteed.

If Sunderland's makeshift back line cracks early, Chelsea have the runners to turn one goal into three, and Brobbey has already shown at Manchester City that he can score in a game that opens up. An early Chelsea goal is what beats this pick, because it drags Sunderland out of the shape that keeps their home games small.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.