Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

San Diego FC close the regular season at Snapdragon Stadium with Anders Dreyer, who has 14 goals and 12 assists this season, against a Sporting Kansas City side that finishes bottom of the conference after conceding more goals than anyone in the league. The last night of the season pairs the West's most generous defense with an attack built to punish exactly that.

The Matchup

Anders Dreyer has been the story of San Diego's season, 14 goals and 12 assists with 98 shots, a winger who scores the chances and makes them in the same match. Marcus Ingvartsen has added 12 goals and Onni Valakari 5 goals with 9 assists, and at Snapdragon Stadium the attack has run at better than 2 goals a game across the home matches pulled since August. San Diego do not defend well enough to be a top side, 62 goals conceded tells that story, but they have never needed to defend their way through a night like this one.

Kansas City's season ends where it has lived. Sporting have conceded 81 goals, the worst mark in the league, and arrive winless in five, with defeats at Nashville, at Minnesota and at home to Salt Lake and Austin before a draw with Dallas stopped the run.

The defending has not been one bad month. It has been the constant, home and away, and the attack behind it has managed 39 goals all season. André Luiz, with 7 goals in 12 matches, is the one forward who has produced at a real rate, and he has spent the autumn feeding on scraps.

Neither club has named its side yet. San Diego are expected to keep the 4-3-3 that won at St. Louis, Pablo Sisniega in goal, Christopher McVey in the back line, Onni Valakari in midfield, and Ingvartsen and Dreyer in the front line. Kansas City are expected to keep the 4-4-2 that drew with Dallas, Stefan Cleveland in goal, and André Luiz and Taylor Calheira, who has 5 goals, in the side further forward, with Calvin Harris, who has 4 goals and 6 assists, wide.

Key Factors

The handicap asks San Diego to win by 2, and the split in the ticket is honest about the risk. A one-goal home win pushes half the stake and loses the other half, so this pick needs San Diego to actually pull away, not just to win.

The case for it is Kansas City's defending over a full season rather than a bad week, a back line that has conceded at home and away, early and late, to good attacks and ordinary ones. San Diego's home games have been open all autumn, and open games against this Kansas City defense have a way of becoming routs once the first goal lands.

The honest counterpoint is San Diego themselves. This side has drawn 11 matches this season, more than it has won, and it drew at home with Houston and Seattle in October, so a flat, end-of-season San Diego performance that wins by one, or does not win at all, is easy to picture. What beats this pick is San Diego settling for control after one goal. The counter is Dreyer, who has not settled in a home match all season, against a defense that gives a player like him the ball in the places he wants it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.