Chicago State Cougars vs Incarnate Word Cardinals Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Both teams opened the season with blowout losses on the road against power conference teams. One of them now comes home to face a team that won seven games last season, and that difference matters.
The Matchup
Chicago State visits Incarnate Word on Thursday evening at the McDermott Center in San Antonio, on ESPN+, with Incarnate Word a 7.5-point favorite and a total of 145.5. Both teams are 0-1, and both spent Monday getting run out of a power conference gym.
Incarnate Word finished 12-19 last season, scoring 74.3 points a game and allowing 73.7. Chicago State finished 7-25, scoring 65.8 and allowing 76.1. The openers told the same story in louder fashion: Incarnate Word lost 91-60 at Oklahoma State, and Chicago State lost 109-59 at Texas, a 50-point loss in which the Cougars never found a scorer who could steady them.
Neither team has proven much yet, which is exactly why the setting decides this one. Incarnate Word gets its home opener against the weakest team it will see for weeks. Chicago State plays its second straight road game, with an offense that has not shown it can score away from home against anyone.
Key Factors
Incarnate Word found two things at Oklahoma State that Chicago State never found at Texas: a guard who could score and a rim protector. Mekhi Conner scored 18 points against the Cowboys, going 3-of-5 from three and 7-of-8 at the free-throw line. Godswill Erheriene added 12 points on 6-of-10 shooting, and Christophe Pare blocked 6 shots, which changes how a visiting team that lives on drives has to play.
Chicago State's problem is the top of its scoring chart. Will Lovings-Watts led the Cougars with 13 points at Texas and Mike Price added 12, and after that the production fell off fast. A team that scored 65.8 points a game last season and 59 in its opener does not have a second gear to reach for when a home crowd gets loud and a few shots rim out. Incarnate Word does not need to be good here. It needs to be ordinary at home against a team that has been ordinary nowhere.
The counterpoint is Incarnate Word's own sloppiness, and it is honest. The Cardinals scored only 60 points themselves at Oklahoma State, and Conner turned the ball over 6 times, so a careless home favorite can absolutely let a bad road team hang around into the final minutes.
If Chicago State takes care of the ball and slows the game down, 7.5 points is a lot to ask of a team that has not scored yet this season. The bet is that home court plus the two best players on the floor is enough against the weakest offense in this game.
Chicago State had nobody who took over the game late at Texas, while Incarnate Word at least found a guard who could score and a big man who protects the rim against a power conference team. Coming home changes this game. Lay the points with Incarnate Word Cardinals -7.5 at -112.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/5) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 5:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | McDermott Center, San Antonio |
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals -7.5 |
| Total | 145.5 |
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals -345 |
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