Chicago State Cougars vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Texas opens ranked seventh and lays 40.5 points at the Moody Center. Chicago State won seven games last season, but its rebuilt guard rotation has scored at every previous stop, and Texas allowed 76.2 points a game.

The Matchup

Texas is a 40.5-point favorite over Chicago State at the Moody Center in Austin on Monday night, with a total of 149.5, on SEC Network. It is the season opener for both teams. Texas finished 21-15 last season, scoring 82.8 points per game and allowing 76.2. Chicago State finished 7-25, scoring 65.8 and allowing 76.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Chicago State brings back one starter, so almost everything about this team is new, including its best player. Will Lovings-Watts averaged 15.1 points and 5.7 rebounds last season at Union, a Division II program in Tennessee, and steps up a level as the Cougars' first option. Behind him, Mike Price averaged 6.5 points across 31 games at Cal State Bakersfield and Armari Carraway started 17 games at Charleston Southern, so the guard rotation at least consists of players who have scored in college games before.

Texas will lean on its size. Matas Vokietaitis and Lewis Obiorah give the Longhorns two 7-footers, and Chicago State has nobody who matches either one. The Longhorns' flaw last season was at the other end: 76.2 points allowed per game is a loose number for a team that opens the season ranked seventh, and it is the crack this whole pick is built on.

Key Factors

Start with the scoring environment. Texas's games averaged 159.0 points last season, because the Longhorns scored plenty and guarded loosely. This total is lower, at 149.5, mostly because Chicago State dragged its own games down. A 40.5-point spread still asks Texas to claim more than a quarter of the expected scoring as pure margin, against an opponent whose new guards are used to having the ball in their hands.

Chicago State's path is narrow but specific. Lovings-Watts has to be a real first option at this level, the way he was at Union, and Price and Carraway have to keep the offense organized when Texas extends its defense. The Cougars do not need to trade baskets for 40 minutes. They need to avoid the four-minute scoreless droughts that turn a 15-point game into a 30-point game, because one drought is survivable and two are not.

The counterpoint is Chicago State's recent history, and it is ugly. The Cougars won seven games last season and were outscored by 10.3 points per game across the season, and they open this one picked near the bottom of the NEC again. Texas's size should produce putbacks and free throws whenever it wants them. If the Longhorns defend with any real interest, this pick has no mechanism left, and everyone holding it will know by halftime.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.