Liberty Flames vs High Point Panthers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
High Point scored 89.7 points per game last season and closed the year by beating Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament. Liberty brings a 26-win team and a defense that allowed 70.5 a game to a neutral floor in Rock Hill, for a season opener that tips just before midnight.
The Matchup
High Point is a 7.5-point favorite over Liberty at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in South Carolina on Sunday night, with a total of 154.5 and the Panthers at -325 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams, streaming on YouTube, with a tip just before midnight Central.
Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. High Point finished 31-5, scoring 89.7 points per game and allowing 71.3. Liberty finished 26-8, scoring 77.7 and allowing 70.5. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
High Point's March is why this spread is priced the way it is. The Panthers won the Big South tournament, then beat Wisconsin 83-82 in the NCAA tournament and pushed Arkansas in a 94-88 loss. The best returning player from that run is back. Forward Cam'Ron Fletcher came off the bench for 14 points and 11 rebounds against Wisconsin, then scored 25 points with 8 rebounds against Arkansas. Braden Hausen, who started both NCAA tournament games, is back as well.
Liberty's identity is the opposite. The Flames win with defense and patience, and last season's 70.5 points allowed is the number this game turns on. Their season ended with a 73-63 loss to Nevada in March. For Liberty to hang in here, that defense has to travel to a neutral floor and hold up in the first game of the season.
Key Factors
The first thing is the fight over the scoring environment. High Point's games averaged 161.0 points last season. Liberty's averaged 148.2. The posted total of 154.5 sits almost exactly between them, which means the market expects Liberty's defense to drag a High Point game halfway toward a Liberty game. Everything about this lean is a bet on which team gets its kind of game.
The second thing is the gap between the two seasons. High Point's scoring differential was 18.5 points per game, Liberty's 7.2. Some of that gap is schedule. The Big South is not Conference USA, and Liberty's 26 wins came against better nightly competition. Discount it for that and the gap still does not close. High Point has the proven tournament scorer in Fletcher, the continuity of a team that won its league, and the best player on the floor.
The honest counterpoint is Liberty's defense itself. A team that allows 70.5 points per game and plays deliberately can turn any opener into a grind, and in a grind, 7.5 points is a lot of room. If High Point's new pieces around Fletcher are slow to settle, the Flames can drag this inside the number. That is the game where this lean loses. Openers between a fast team and a slow team usually break toward the fast team late, though, when legs go and depth tells.
Editorial pick. High Point was the better team by a wide margin last season, the run it made in March was real, and its best returning scorer from that run is back to lead it. Liberty's defense will make the Panthers work for everything, but the gap in class tells over a full game in an opener. Take High Point -7.5 at -110.
Game information
| DATE | Sunday (11/1) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 10:59 PM CT |
| HOW TO WATCH | YouTube |
| VENUE | Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, Rock Hill |
| SPREAD | High Point Panthers -7.5 |
| TOTAL | 154.5 |
| MONEYLINE | High Point Panthers -325 |
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.