Chiefs vs Seahawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Oct 25, 2026

Kansas City is 5-0, scores 28.0 points per game and allows 16.6, visiting a 3-3 Seattle team that allows 20.3 points per game at Lumen Field.

01The Matchup

Seattle gets the undefeated team at home in prime time, and the numbers explain why Kansas City is still the side to fear despite the venue. The Chiefs are 5-0 with 28.0 points scored and just 16.6 points allowed per game, gaining 421.6 total yards per game. Seattle is 3-3, scoring 24.7 and allowing 20.3, with 352.0 total yards per game. The gap in yards and scoring margin is substantial before kickoff.

Patrick Mahomes has 1,309 yards with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, completing passes at 66.5 percent and 8.3 yards per attempt for Kansas City. For Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the standout with 49 catches for 717 yards and 7 touchdowns. Kansas City also runs it far better, at 159.8 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry, compared to 107.2 yards and 3.9 yards per carry for Seattle. That rushing edge lets the Chiefs control tempo even on the road.

02Key Factors

Ball security separates these teams sharply. Kansas City holds a plus 5 turnover differential with 9 takeaways and only 4 giveaways, while Seattle sits at minus 1 with 11 takeaways offset by 12 giveaways. Seattle has thrown 7 interceptions against 11 passing touchdowns, a risk profile that plays directly into a Chiefs defense allowing only 16.6 points per game.

Seattle does bring pressure, with 16 sacks and 37 tackles for loss to just 8 sacks and 29 tackles for loss for Kansas City, and that rush has to disrupt Mahomes early. The counterweight is third down play and efficiency: Kansas City converts at 41.7 percent while Seattle converts at just 32.4 percent, and Seattle has 47 penalties to 39 for the Chiefs. If Seattle cannot sustain drives, its defense will face repeated short rest against an offense averaging 421.6 yards per game, and the home crowd advantage fades quickly.

03The Pick

The selection is Chiefs +2.5. This is an Editorial pick rooted in Kansas City being undefeated, owning the best scoring defense in this matchup at 16.6 points allowed per game, and protecting the ball far better than Seattle. The model projection is Seahawks 22, Chiefs 23, a 1 point outright win for Kansas City. Against a market line of Seahawks -2.5, the projected home margin of minus 1 versus a market home margin of plus 2.5 gives an edge of 3.5 points.

An outright win by the underdog covers +2.5 outright, and Kansas City would also cover with a loss by 1 or 2 points. Seattle at home with Smith-Njigba producing 717 receiving yards is dangerous, and its pass rush is the one clear statistical edge for the home team. Still, the Chiefs score more, allow less, run better at 5.5 yards per carry, and turn it over less, which supports taking the points and the outright win in the projection.

Before you go, take a look at our thoughts on who covers in Broncos vs Cardinals.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.