Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
New York beat Cleveland by twelve in Cleveland on Saturday, and the rematch comes four days later at Madison Square Garden with the Knicks laying a much shorter number than that result suggests. Cleveland scores freely and defends loosely, and that split is the whole argument in this one.
The Matchup
Cleveland is 5-6, scores 116.5 points per game and allows 115.0, a team that wins shootouts and loses them. Donovan Mitchell leads the Cavaliers at 22.8 points per game, James Harden runs the offense at 5.7 assists, and Jarrett Allen anchors the glass at 7.7 rebounds. The rotation is thinner tonight. Sam Merrill is out, and Jaylon Tyson is out with a sprain, so two perimeter pieces Cleveland counts on are missing.
New York is 6-4, scores 110.6 and allows just 102.3, the stingiest defense in this matchup by a wide margin. Jalen Brunson leads the Knicks at 26.2 points and 5.6 assists per game, and Karl-Anthony Towns is pulling down 13.6 rebounds a night, a number no Cleveland big is close to matching. Josh Hart is out tonight, which costs New York energy on the wings, but the core of this team is intact.
These teams just played. New York won 109-97 at Cleveland on Saturday, and the Knicks followed it with a 117-85 win over Milwaukee on Tuesday, so this is the second night of a back-to-back for the home team. Cleveland last played Monday, a 124-112 loss at Charlotte.
Every team in this game has played at least ten games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes New York a 3.5-point home favorite at Madison Square Garden, with a total of 221.5 and the Knicks at -166 on the moneyline.
Key Factors
The defensive gap decides games like this. Cleveland allows 115.0 points per game, and a team that loose cannot count on trading baskets with Brunson for four quarters. New York defends at 102.3 allowed, and when the Knicks slow a game down at home, a visiting offense built on Mitchell isolations has to work for everything it gets.
Towns is the second problem. At 13.6 rebounds per game he turns defensive stops into finished possessions, and Allen at 7.7 rebounds is giving up real size in that fight. Extra Knicks possessions at home are how a short favorite separates late, one offensive rebound at a time.
The honest counter is the schedule. New York played Tuesday night and Cleveland did not, and Hart's absence thins the exact part of the rotation that chases fresh legs around. If Cleveland pushes pace early and Mitchell gets downhill before the Knicks set their defense, the visitor can absolutely steal this game outright. The pick trusts New York's defense and rebounding to matter more than one night of rest.
New York defends at a level Cleveland simply does not, and Towns gives the Knicks a rebounding edge that turns close possessions into home possessions at the Garden. The back-to-back is a real concern, but the better defensive team at home is the side worth laying a short number with. Take the New York Knicks -3.5 at -115.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/11) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | League Pass |
| Venue | Madison Square Garden |
| Spread | New York Knicks -3.5 |
| Total | 221.5 |
| Moneyline | New York Knicks -166 |
More Picks This Week
Player Props for This Game
3 props- Karl-Anthony Towns ReboundsOver 12.5 -121
- Jalen Brunson PointsOver 27.5 -110
- Donovan Mitchell AssistsOver 4.5 -138
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.