Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
New York has won three straight by holding teams to 104.2 points a night, and Milwaukee has lost six straight while allowing 121.6 points a game. The tension at Madison Square Garden is not who wins this game. It is whether a defense-first favorite can separate by a margin this size.
The Matchup
New York is 5-4, scores 109.9 points per game and allows 104.2, and the Knicks have won three straight, the last a 109-97 win at Cleveland on Saturday. Jalen Brunson leads New York at 26.2 points and 5.6 assists per game, and Karl-Anthony Towns leads the team on the glass at 13.6 rebounds. Josh Hart is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on whether Hart plays before placing a bet.
Milwaukee is 1-9, scores 108.4 and allows 121.6, and the Bucks have lost six straight, the last a 117-97 home loss to Boston on Sunday. Tyler Herro leads Milwaukee at 21.4 points and 4.3 assists per game, and Kel'el Ware leads the team at 6.9 rebounds. Herro is day-to-day with a bruise on his right knee, and he is Milwaukee's whole offense in one line. Keep an eye on whether Herro plays before placing a bet. Gary Trent Jr. is day-to-day with an illness.
New York has played nine games and Milwaukee ten, so these numbers still carry last season attached to them. Last season New York outscored teams by 6.4 points per game and Milwaukee was outscored by 6.2, and the blend changes nothing about the shape of this matchup. DraftKings makes New York a 15.5-point home favorite at Madison Square Garden, with a total of 220.5 and the Knicks at -990 on the moneyline.
Key Factors
Milwaukee's defense is the first problem, and it is a real one. The Bucks allow 121.6 points per game, they gave up 136 to Cleveland and 121 to Toronto in the last two weeks, and a team that guards like this usually loses big. What keeps this from being a simple lay-the-points night is the other bench. New York scores 109.9 points per game, among the more modest attacks in the league, and the Knicks win by strangling games, not by running them up.
Herro's knee decides how live the visitor is. He leads Milwaukee in scoring and assists, and the Bucks have no second creator who bends a set defense. If Herro sits, Milwaukee's offense becomes a series of late-clock shots against the best defensive team it has seen, and the big number stops looking big. If he plays at full strength, the Bucks can trade enough baskets early to make fifteen points a long road in a slow game.
The fourth quarter cuts the other way, toward the points. A favorite up twenty with six minutes left empties its bench, and the margin that looked safe all night bleeds away against a visitor still playing its starters. New York's starters sitting early is the most ordinary way a spread this size fails, and it has nothing to do with who the better team is.
New York wins its games with defense, not with runaway scoring, and a number this size asks a slow, grinding team to do something it rarely does. Milwaukee is bad, but bad teams cover big numbers against favorites who score in the low hundreds. Take the Milwaukee Bucks +15.5 at -106.
Game Information
| Date | Tuesday (11/10) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | League Pass |
| Venue | Madison Square Garden |
| Spread | New York Knicks -15.5 |
| Total | 220.5 |
| Moneyline | New York Knicks -990 |
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1 prop- Karl-Anthony Towns ReboundsOver 13.5 +101
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.