Colorado Buffaloes vs Providence Friars Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Colorado crosses the country with the best scorer in the game, and Providence defends its floor behind the stingiest early defense on Saturday's slate.

The Matchup

Colorado visits Providence on Saturday at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, on Peacock, with Providence favored by 9.5 points, a total of 154.5, and no moneyline posted on either side. Both teams are 2-1. The Buffaloes have made the long trip east with the best scorer in the matchup, and the Friars have opened the season defending like a completely different team.

Providence scores 73.0 points a game and allows 59.3, the stingiest defensive number among Saturday's home teams in this set. Malik Mack leads the Friars at 13.0 points a game, Gavin Hightower hands out 3.0 assists a game, and Jacob Bannarbie leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game. It is balance over star power, five ways to hurt an opponent and no single player a defense can load up on. Providence carries no injury designations.

Colorado scores 81.0 points a game and allows 70.3. Barrington Hargress leads the Buffaloes at 20.0 points and 4.7 assists a game, the top scorer and top creator in this game at once, and Alex Dickeson leads them at 7.0 rebounds a game. Colorado carries no injury designations either. The caveat in this game belongs to Providence's defense.

The Friars allowed 84.0 points a game last season while scoring 85.3, a shootout team through and through, and a drop to 59.3 allowed in three games is a transformation that needs more evidence before it is believed completely. Colorado scored 80.2 and allowed 79.8 last season, which makes its steadier 70.3 allowed its own early surprise.

Key Factors

Hargress is the stress test for everything Providence claims to have become defensively. A guard at 20.0 points and 4.7 assists a game bends a defense on nearly every possession, and the Friars have no single stopper answer so much as a scheme answer: keep him out of the lane, make Colorado's second and third options beat them, and live with the rest. If Hargress plays Providence's help defenders into fouls or open looks for teammates, 9.5 points is a lot of cushion for the home team to protect.

The scoring environment cuts both ways. A total of 154.5 prices a game far more open than Providence's 73.0 scored and 59.3 allowed suggest, and an open game helps the underdog with the best individual scorer. Colorado's path is pace and Hargress. Providence's path is the opposite: drag the Buffaloes into the half court, where Mack's balance and Bannarbie's work on the glass wear a traveling team down over forty minutes.

The honest counterpoint is that Providence's defensive leap may simply be real, and home court in this building is worth plenty on its own. Colorado has flown across the country into one of the loudest rooms in the Big East, and if the Friars' defense holds the Buffaloes anywhere near 59.3 allowed, Hargress included, the favorite covers this spread comfortably and the trip home feels even longer. Colorado needs its star to be special. Providence needs only to be itself, if this new self is genuine.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.