San Diego Toreros vs Colorado Buffaloes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
San Diego is 2-0 with the better ball movement and the better rebounder in this matchup. Colorado has the best scorer and the altitude, and the spread prices both of those at full value.
The Matchup
San Diego visits Colorado on Tuesday night at the CU Events Center in Boulder, with Colorado a 13.5-point favorite, a total of 151.5, and the Buffaloes priced at -1,200 on the moneyline against San Diego at +750. Colorado is the bigger program at home, and San Diego is the unbeaten team the market still does not quite trust.
San Diego is 2-0, with a 79-62 win over Biola and a 96-90 win over Tarleton State. The Toreros have scored 87.5 points a game and allowed 76.0, with 18.0 assists a game moving the offense. Dusty Stromer leads them at 17.0 points a game, Davion Hill leads them at 4.0 assists a game, and Jose Roberto Tanchyn leads them at 8.0 rebounds a game. Last season San Diego went 12-21, scored 74.5 a game, and allowed 77.9, so this start is a genuine step up from the program's recent baseline.
Colorado is 1-1, with a 94-59 win over Abilene Christian and a 77-66 loss at San Diego State. Barrington Hargress leads the Buffaloes at 22.0 points a game, and Alex Dickeson leads them at 3.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds a game. Colorado has scored 80.0 a game and allowed 68.0, shooting 49 percent from the field and 43 percent from three. Last season Colorado went 17-15, scored 80.0 a game, and allowed 79.4.
Key Factors
Ball movement is San Diego's edge, and it shows up in one stark contrast: the Toreros average 18.0 assists a game, while Colorado's assist leader, Dickeson, averages 3.5. Colorado's offense runs through Hargress creating his own shot, which works beautifully when he is hot and stalls when a defense can sit on him. San Diego's offense does not have that single point of failure, and Stromer at 17.0 a game gives the Toreros their own closer when a possession breaks down.
The glass is the second factor. Tanchyn at 8.0 rebounds a game leads a San Diego team averaging 38.0 rebounds, against a Colorado team averaging 33.0 with nobody above 5.5. Extra possessions are how a road underdog survives altitude and a hostile building, and San Diego is built to steal a few of them. Colorado's shooting, 43 percent from three so far, is the force that can erase that edge in a hurry, because made threes do not produce offensive rebounds to chase.
The counterpoint is real: Colorado just went to San Diego State and stayed within 11, Hargress is the best player in the game, and Boulder at altitude is a hard place for a visiting team in its first true road game. San Diego also allowed 90 to Tarleton State, so its defense can be had.
If Hargress gets downhill early and Colorado's shooting holds, the Buffaloes can win this by 20. But a favorite whose offense depends on one creator, laying 13.5 against an unbeaten team that shares the ball and rebounds better, is a favorite priced for its best night.
San Diego is unbeaten, shares the ball better than Colorado does, and has the best rebounder in the game in Tanchyn. Colorado is home and Hargress can take over a half, but 13.5 is a lot to lay on a team whose assist leader sits at 3.5 a game. Take the points: San Diego Toreros +13.5 at -115.
Game Information
| Date | Tuesday (11/10) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 8:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | CU Events Center, Boulder |
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes -13.5 |
| Total | 151.5 |
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes -1,200 |
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