Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Miami is 0-3 and laying 7.5 points, and its best player fouled out in 25 minutes on Saturday night. Dallas arrives with its own problem, because Cooper Flagg sat out Saturday with a sprained shoulder and is questionable again tonight. A winless favorite and a banged-up underdog meet in Miami, and the number has picked a side more confidently than either team has played.

The Matchup

Miami's record is the story. The Heat are 0-3, and the losses have not been hard luck. Minnesota beat them by 25, Detroit by 17, and Charlotte by 5 on Saturday, and Miami has allowed 124.7 points per game, this after a 43-39 season last year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo leads Miami at 28.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, but Saturday showed the fragility underneath him. He fouled out in 25 minutes at Charlotte with 14 points, and Miami's offense fell to Davion Mitchell, who finished with 22 points and 10 assists in the loss.

Mitchell averages 8.7 assists and is a steady hand. He is not a second star, and when Giannis sits, the Heat look like a team without a plan. Miami's injury report for Monday is empty. This is the whole roster, playing this way.

Dallas is 1-2, scoring 112.3 points per game and allowing 118.3, and its week has been shaped by Flagg's left shoulder. He played only 17 minutes at Indiana on Thursday, still putting up 14 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in a win, then sat out Saturday's home loss to San Antonio entirely.

Dallas lost that game 122-106, with Sergio de Larrea leading the team at 21 points. Kyrie Irving scored 24 at Indiana and also sat Saturday, and he carries no injury designation for Monday. P.J. Washington had 20 points and 13 rebounds at Indiana, and Daniel Gafford gives Dallas a finisher inside that Miami has to account for.

Flagg is questionable to play tonight with a sprained left shoulder. Keep an eye on whether Flagg plays before placing a bet. Caleb Martin is doubtful with a sprained right thumb, Naji Marshall is out tonight with an illness, and Dereck Lively II is out after right foot surgery, with a return expected around October 28.

With both teams three games into the season, last season still frames the matchup, and last season Dallas went 26-56 while Miami went 43-39. DraftKings still makes Miami a 7.5-point favorite, with a total of 235.5.

Key Factors

Miami's defense is the weakest unit in the game, and it is not close. The Heat have allowed 131, 128 and 115 points in their three games. Bam Adebayo is a top-level defender and it has not mattered, because Miami's perimeter defense keeps breaking down and putting him in rotation. Dallas does not need Flagg at full strength to find good shots against a defense playing like this. It needs ball movement, and Washington scored 20 and Max Christie 16 at Indiana on a night Flagg was limited to 17 minutes.

The honest risk is Flagg. If he sits again, Dallas loses the player who bends a defense toward him, and the Mavericks we saw on Saturday were overmatched at home. If he plays at half speed, the shoulder limits the pull-up game that makes him dangerous. Either version narrows Dallas's margin for error against a desperate 0-3 team at home, with Giannis rested after a 25-minute night and due a response.

What keeps the points valuable is the shape of Miami's problem. The Heat have not beaten anybody, and their best case runs through a star who just fouled out in 25 minutes and a thin bench behind him. The total is 235.5, and the teams have combined to average 221.3 points scored per game, so the market expects a shootout neither offense has produced consistently. Dallas gets 7.5 points of cushion in a game we have Miami winning by about 2.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.