Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Golden State is 0-3, and the strangest part of its start is who has been missing. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Brandin Podziemski all sat out Saturday's loss at Phoenix, and none of the three carries an injury designation for Monday in Denver. The Warriors who walk into Ball Arena are a different team from the one that lost three straight, and they are still getting 7.5 points.

The Matchup

Denver is 1-1 and its two games could not look more different. The Nuggets scored 84 points in a loss at Oklahoma City, then beat New Orleans 141-135 in overtime at home on Saturday. Nikola Jokic played 44 minutes in that win and finished with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists.

He leads Denver at 24.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game, and everything the Nuggets do runs through his hands at the elbows. Denver allowed 135 points to a Pelicans team that is winless, and its defense has allowed 115.5 per game, which is the soft spot Golden State has to attack.

Golden State's 0-3 comes with context. Curry scored 24 points in Friday's three-point home loss to Memphis, then Curry, Green and Podziemski all sat out Saturday at Phoenix, where the Warriors still scored 122 behind 26 points from Yaxel Lendeborg and 25 from De'Anthony Melton.

Curry averages 23.5 points per game, and Lendeborg has been a genuine find, leading the team at 8.3 rebounds per game after 18 points and 13 rebounds against Memphis. The Warriors allow 123.0 points per game, and that number was built in part by a skeleton crew on Saturday.

The long-term absences are already part of Golden State's season. Porzingis is out with an illness, with a return not expected before December. Moses Moody is out after left knee surgery, and Jimmy Butler III is out with a torn right ACL, with a return expected around January or February. Denver's report is about Monday specifically.

Cameron Johnson is doubtful to play tonight with a sprained right ankle, which thins Denver's wing defense in the exact spot Curry stresses. Alpha Diallo is doubtful with a right wrist injury, and Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are both out. With last season still framing a young season, Denver's 54-28 against Golden State's 37-45, DraftKings makes Denver a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 235.5.

Key Factors

Jokic's minutes are a real factor. He played 44 in an overtime game on Saturday night, and Denver's offense has no second engine when he sits. Jamal Murray is a proven pick-and-roll partner, but Saturday's win still needed Jokic on the floor for nearly the whole night against a winless team. If Golden State's rested starters push the pace early, Denver's rotation gets stressed in ways it was not on Saturday.

Curry against a thinned wing rotation is the matchup the points are built on. Johnson is Denver's most switchable wing defender, and if he sits, the Nuggets have one fewer body to switch onto Curry at the top of the floor. Curry does not need much room. His gravity bends a defense even on a cold night, and Golden State scored 122 on Saturday without him.

The altitude and the road record are the honest case against. Golden State is winless, its defense has allowed 123.0 a game, and Jokic picking apart a small frontcourt with no Porzingis is easy to picture. If Denver controls the glass and plays the game in the half court, 7.5 is not enough. The Warriors' path is narrower. They need the pace up, Curry's gravity working, and Denver's tired legs to show in the fourth quarter. That path is live enough at this number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.