Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week
Minnesota is 8-3 and outscoring teams by 11.1 points per game, yet its best player is out after knee surgery and Dallas arrives behind a rookie who is carrying its whole offense. The tension at Target Center is whether Minnesota's defense still runs the game, or Cooper Flagg turns a strong home team's night into a shootout.
The Matchup
Minnesota is 8-3, scores 118.1 points per game and allows 107.0, and the Timberwolves beat Utah 115-100 at home on Sunday. LaMelo Ball leads Minnesota at 18.3 points and 6.0 assists per game, and Rudy Gobert leads the team at 12.1 rebounds. The headline absence is real. Anthony Edwards is out after surgery on his right knee, and Donte DiVincenzo is out after surgery on his right Achilles. Minnesota plays this game without its best scorer, and the article prices that in rather than around it.
Dallas is 7-4, scores 114.9 and allows 110.3, and the Mavericks have won three straight, the last a 125-122 win over Indiana at home on Monday. Cooper Flagg leads Dallas at 25.9 points and 6.9 assists per game, and P.J. Washington leads the team at 7.5 rebounds, so a rookie is Dallas's top scorer and top passer in the same line. Dereck Lively II is out after surgery on his right foot, which leaves Daniel Gafford to handle Gobert alone inside.
Both teams have played eleven games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Minnesota a 5.5-point home favorite at Target Center, with a total of 226.5 and the Timberwolves at -196 on the moneyline.
Key Factors
Minnesota's defense is the gap in this game. The Timberwolves allow 107.0 points per game, the better mark in this matchup by a clear distance, and Gobert at the rim changes how Flagg has to finish every drive. Dallas can score with anyone when Flagg creates early, but a road offense built on one rookie creator has to solve the same set defense forty times, with no Lively to pull Gobert away from the paint.
The combined scoring points to a fast night. These teams put up 233.0 points per game between them against a total of 226.5, and Minnesota still scores freely through Ball and its wings even without Edwards. Jonathan Kuminga and Jaden McDaniels give the home team two-way size Dallas has to guard honestly, which is how a favorite missing its star still creates clean looks.
The honest counter is Flagg himself. He is not playing like a rookie, Dallas has momentum, and Minnesota without Edwards has less margin for a cold shooting quarter than its record suggests. If Flagg wins his matchup early and gets Gafford rolling to the rim, this stays close deep into the fourth quarter.
Minnesota wins this game in the paint and on defense, where Gobert changes how Dallas finishes and Ball keeps the offense organized without Edwards. Flagg is good enough to make it uncomfortable, and that is the honest risk, but a home team this sound at the defensive end does not need a blowout to justify a moneyline play. Take the Minnesota Timberwolves ML at -196.
Game Information
| Date | Thursday (11/12) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | League Pass |
| Venue | Target Center |
| Spread | Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 |
| Total | 226.5 |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Timberwolves -196 |
More Picks This Week
Player Props for This Game
3 props- Cooper Flagg Pts & Rebs & AstsOver 37.5 -114
- Ayo Dosunmu PointsOver 17.5 -136
- LaMelo Ball PointsOver 20.5 -112
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.