Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Indiana arrives in Dallas without Tyrese Haliburton and with one win in its last five, asking Pascal Siakam to carry a 3-7 team into a building where Cooper Flagg already runs the home offense. Dallas played Sunday too, and the tension is whether a young home team on a back-to-back still has the legs to separate from a visitor this short-handed.

The Matchup

Dallas is 6-4, scores 113.9 points per game and allows 109.1, and the Mavericks have built that record around a rookie who already runs the offense. Cooper Flagg leads Dallas at 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game, and P.J. Washington leads the team at 7.7 rebounds. Dallas beat Brooklyn 130-93 on Sunday night in this building, its second straight win. Dereck Lively II is out after right foot surgery, so Daniel Gafford carries the middle, and Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic are also out.

Indiana is 3-7, scores 110.3 and allows 114.2, and the Pacers have lost four of their last five. The loss that frames the season came in the training room: Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain, and T.J. McConnell is day-to-day with a right hamstring strain, so two of Indiana's guards are on the report at once.

Keep an eye on whether McConnell plays before placing a bet. Pascal Siakam leads what is left at 21.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, Andrew Nembhard leads the team at 7.0 assists, and Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard are out.

Both teams have played 10 games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Dallas a 4.5-point home favorite at American Airlines Center, with a total of 222.5 and the Mavericks at -169 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

The guard gap decides most of this. Indiana creates its offense through Haliburton and Nembhard, and with Haliburton out the creation falls to Nembhard and Siakam against a Dallas defense allowing 109.1 points per game, the better defensive number in this game. Siakam can score on anyone, but an offense that needs him to initiate and finish on the same possession wears down over four quarters.

Dallas has its own problem, and it is the calendar. The Mavericks played Sunday night, and a young rotation on a back-to-back can go flat for a quarter at a time. Indiana had Saturday's loss at home to Denver and a travel day to recover, so the visitor is the fresher team even if it is the thinner one.

What beats the pick is a flat Dallas start that lets Indiana hang around into the fourth quarter, where a short spread stops protecting anyone. Indiana's case needs Siakam to win his matchup outright and Nembhard to control the pace all night. Dallas asks for less, its best player creating at home against a defense allowing 114.2 points a night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.