Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC Fight Night

Elijah Smith is 24, unbeaten in the UFC, and fighting for a new contract. Davey Grant is 40, has been in the UFC since 2013, and has made a late career out of ruining exactly this kind of prospect night.

The Matchup

Elijah Smith's three UFC fights are a tour of the ways a young bantamweight can win. He outpointed Vince Morales in his debut, knocked Toshiomi Kazama out in the first round with a slam last August, and in March he submitted SuYoung You, who had never been submitted, after You took him down four times in the first round.

Smith averages 2.98 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.12 submission attempts, he is 10-1 on an eight-fight win streak, and the only loss of his career came in 2023. At 24, on the last fight of his first UFC contract, he is fighting for the renewal as much as the win.

Davey Grant has seen every version of this fight. He has been in the UFC since 2013, he is 18-8 with nine submission wins and four knockouts, and he has never been knocked out.

His last three wins all went to the cards, over Adrián Luna Martinetti in a Fight of the Night in April, Da'Mon Blackshear and Ramon Taveras, veterans' wins built on volume: Grant lands 5.58 significant strikes a minute, more than Smith has ever produced. His one recent loss is the warning label. Charles Jourdain guillotined him in the first round last October, and five of Grant's eight career losses have come by submission.

Key Factors

The fight turns on Grant's neck, which is a strange thing to say about a man with nine submission wins of his own. Grant's losses tell the story his wins hide: when he loses, he gets choked, and Smith's grappling is not a side quest.

Smith chains takedowns, he hunts submissions at a rate most bantamweights never attempt, and he proved against You that being put on his back four times in a round does not rattle him out of that game. He finished that fight a round later with a rear-naked choke. Grant defends 65 percent of takedowns, a real number, and it has to hold for fifteen minutes against a 24-year-old who will keep asking.

Grant's case is volume and scar tissue. He lands more, he has fought sixteen times in the UFC to Smith's three, and Smith defends only 47 percent of the strikes thrown at him, so the older man's overhand right and body work will find a home if this stays standing. Smith has also never faced anyone with Grant's experience, and prospects have a way of discovering in the second round that the veteran is still there.

If Grant survives the grappling exchanges early and turns this into a striking pace fight, his rounds get better as Smith's entries get more desperate. That is what beats the pick. We just do not think Grant's submission defense survives fifteen minutes of questions.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.