Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - UFC Fight Night

Karine Silva has finished 17 of her 19 wins and just beat the No. 9 flyweight. Gabriella Fernandes defends takedowns well and knocked her last opponent out with a head kick. Something has to give at No. 11 versus No. 14.

The Matchup

Karine Silva's record is a finisher's record: 19 wins, 17 of them inside the distance, split between knockouts and submissions so evenly that opponents cannot sell out against either. The recent form matches the reputation. She submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz, outpointed Viviane Araujo, and in May she beat Tracy Cortez, who sits two places above her at No. 9, by unanimous decision.

Her one loss in this run came against Jasmine Jasudavicius, a grappler who beat her at her own game by submission. She averages 2.40 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.5 submission attempts, and her fights rarely stay standing by choice.

Gabriella Fernandes, ranked No. 14, is the striker in the pairing, a southpaw who fights long at 5'6" and announced her power in May, knocking out Irina Alekseeva with a head kick in the first round of her most recent fight. She defends 67 percent of takedowns, a number built against a lower level of wrestling than Silva brings, and her own grappling is respectable, with three submission wins among her eleven. Her last loss, a decision to Miranda Maverick last December, showed the template that worries her backers: a determined grappler can hold her down and take rounds off her.

Key Factors

The fight turns on the first two takedown attempts. Fernandes's 67 percent defense is a real number, and if it holds early, Silva's striking is not built to win a fifteen-minute kickboxing match: she lands 2.09 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.58, a negative differential that tells you how little of her game is meant to happen on the feet. Fernandes is longer, she is the southpaw, and she has already shown the head kick that punishes a wrestler who ducks into an entry carelessly.

But Silva has spent her career solving this exact problem against better opposition than Fernandes has faced. Cortez is a strong defensive wrestler, and Silva beat her over three rounds in May. Jasudavicius, the one woman who has outgrappled her lately, is a top-five caliber grappler, and Fernandes is not that.

Silva chains her attempts, she works from the clinch as happily as from range, and once a round reaches the mat her submission threat means Fernandes cannot simply survive the position and wait for the horn. The longer Silva keeps the fight in her world, the more the finish routes multiply.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.