Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis is 7-3 and scores like a contender at home, and Denver arrives on a five-game win streak built around the most complete big man in the league. The tension at FedExForum is whether a road favorite can pull away from a home team that creates this many good shots.

The Matchup

Memphis is 7-3, scores 117.9 points per game and allows 110.8, and the Grizzlies won 118-102 at Toronto on Sunday. Ty Jerome leads Memphis at 26.7 points per game, and Cameron Boozer leads the team at 5.5 assists and 9.7 rebounds, a rookie doing a veteran's share of the creating and the glass work in the same line. Isaiah Stewart is day-to-day with a bruise on his right knee. Keep an eye on whether Stewart plays before placing a bet. Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with soreness in his back.

Denver is 5-4, scores 113.6 and allows 112.8, and the Nuggets have won five straight, the last a 110-100 win at Houston on Sunday. Jamal Murray leads Denver at 25.8 points per game, and Nikola Jokic leads the team at 9.1 assists and 10.8 rebounds. Julian Strawther is out with a sprain in his left knee, the one name on Denver's report.

Denver has played nine games and Memphis ten, so these numbers still carry last season attached to them. Last season Denver outscored teams by 5.2 points per game while Memphis was outscored by 6.0, and the blend is a warning against reading too much into either team's first two weeks. DraftKings makes Denver a 4.5-point road favorite at FedExForum, with a total of 228.5 and the Nuggets at -156 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Memphis at home is a different scoring team. The Grizzlies put up 136 on Sacramento and 135 on New Orleans in this building, and Jerome's scoring has held up against good defenses, not just bad ones. Denver's defense allows 112.8 points per game, and a defense that ordinary does not travel into a loud building and sit on a home offense for four quarters.

Jokic is the counter, and he is a large one. He is the best passer in this game and its best rebounder, Boozer will spend the night guarding a player who punishes every coverage, and Murray is scoring at a star's level beside him. If Denver controls the glass and slows the game to Jokic's pace, the favorite can absolutely win this by double digits.

What keeps Memphis live is creation in depth. Jerome scores, Boozer creates and rebounds, and the Grizzlies do not depend on one matchup surviving. Denver's road favorite price asks its two stars to be great for the full night in a building where the home team has already beaten good opponents. That is a thinner edge than the number suggests.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.