Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

Memphis has the better record, the better defense, and a rookie guard playing like a star, and New Orleans still gets to play this one at home with Zion Williamson pointed at a rim nobody is protecting. Zach Edey sits for the Grizzlies, and that single absence rewrites what the Smoothie King Center game asks of both teams.

The Matchup

New Orleans is 4-8, scores 116.9 points per game and allows 124.3, a team that wins shootouts or loses them. Zion Williamson leads the Pelicans at 21.7 points per game, Jeremiah Fears runs the offense at 4.9 assists per game, and Derik Queen leads the team at 6.3 rebounds per game. The wing report is crowded. Trey Murphy III is doubtful tonight with a knee injury, and Bennedict Mathurin is doubtful tonight with a thumb injury. Keep an eye on whether Murphy plays before placing a bet.

Memphis is 7-4, scores 117.9 and allows 111.9, the far better defensive profile in this matchup. Ty Jerome leads the Grizzlies at 26.2 points per game, and Cameron Boozer leads Memphis at 9.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, a rookie carrying two categories at once. Zach Edey is out tonight with left ankle injury management, which removes Memphis's rim protector for this game.

Both teams have played more than ten games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Memphis a 3.5-point road favorite at Smoothie King Center, with a total of 234.5 and the Grizzlies at -158 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

Edey's absence is the hinge. Williamson's whole game is rim attempts, and the one Memphis player built to meet him at the rim is sitting. New Orleans scores 116.9 points per game even with a shaky wing rotation, and its best scorer now gets the matchup he wants for a full night at home.

The combined scoring supports a home team that trades baskets. These teams put up 234.8 points per game between them against a total of 234.5, so the market expects exactly the open game New Orleans wants. In open games, a short home number is a small ask for a team with the best individual matchup on the floor.

The honest counter is Memphis's completeness. Jerome is the best guard in this game, Boozer has been excellent, and New Orleans allows 124.3 points per game with its own wings doubtful. If Murphy and Mathurin both sit and Memphis defends the first action well, the Pelicans run out of creators quickly.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.