Denver Pioneers vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 9 LSU is 3-0 at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center, winning by 94, 109 and 57 points, and now it lays 75.5 against a 1-3 Denver team that lost at home by 36 on Tuesday. The margin, not the winner, is the whole argument.

The Matchup

LSU has turned the Pete Maravich Assembly Center into a scoring contest nobody else can enter. The Tigers are 3-0, beating SE Louisiana 129-35, Texas Southern 131-22 and McNeese 100-43, scoring 120.0 points per game and allowing 33.3. ZaKiyah Johnson leads them at 21.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, Jada Williams is dealing 7.0 assists per game, and the scoring comes in waves: six Tigers reached double figures against McNeese, and Anna Minaeva scored 21 points in 20 minutes against Texas Southern. Johnson, Jada Williams and Mikaylah Williams carry no injury designations for Friday.

Denver arrives at 1-3 with a much smaller file and a couple of real players. The Pioneers lost at Air Force 66-45 and at Weber State 64-51, beat Lindenwood 66-52 at home, and lost to Colorado State 86-50 at home on Tuesday. Tori Baker leads Denver at 13.8 points per game and scored 23 points on 7 of 11 shooting against Lindenwood.

Brooke Murrell pulls down 9.5 rebounds per game and just posted 20 points and 10 rebounds against Colorado State, and Laia Monclova added 16 points and 11 rebounds against Lindenwood and 13 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists against Colorado State. Baker, Murrell and Monclova carry no injury designations for Friday.

The honest context is that three and four games tell only part of the story, so last season still matters here, and last season looked very different for both teams. LSU went 29-6 against a full SEC schedule, scoring 95.0 points per game and allowing 61.1. Denver went 11-19 in the Summit League, scoring 60.5 and allowing 66.8, and the Pioneers now play in the West Coast Conference.

Put the two seasons together and LSU still rates far ahead, scoring 107.5 points per game and allowing 47.2 against Denver at 56.8 scored and 66.9 allowed. The gap is enormous. The question is only whether it is big enough for the number LSU is laying on Friday.

Key Factors

Rotation is the first factor, and it cuts in Denver's favor at a number this large. LSU's starters have not needed long nights: Johnson played 23 minutes against McNeese and 22 against Texas Southern, and MiLaysia Fulwiley played 23 and 24, because both games were decided by halftime. A favorite that empties its bench early can keep scoring, and LSU's bench clearly can, but the late minutes of a settled game are usually played at walking pace, and every slow possession protects a spread in the 70s.

Denver's scoring concentration is the second factor. Baker, Murrell and Monclova are the offense, and that is a risk and a lifeline at the same time.

If Murrell gets in foul trouble against LSU's size, Denver has no second post presence and the margin can run. If those three stay on the floor, they have shown they can produce: Murrell and Monclova combined for 33 points and 17 rebounds against Colorado State, the best team Denver has played, and Baker is a genuine shooter who went 3 of 5 from three against Lindenwood.

The counterpoint is not subtle, and it is the reason this number exists. LSU has already won games by 94 and 109 points this season, and Denver lost at home by 36 to Colorado State on Tuesday, its worst night of the season.

If LSU keeps its starters in for long minutes and presses a Denver team that has traveled to Baton Rouge, the Tigers can reach this margin, because they scored 131 points against Texas Southern. The case for the points is narrower: every Denver game this season has finished within 36 points, LSU's closest game, the 57-point win over McNeese, still sits well inside this spread, and a number in the mid-70s asks for four quarters of full effort in a game that should be decided in the first.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.