49ers vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Nov 15, 2026

The 7-1 San Francisco 49ers visit the 4-5 Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in the highest-scoring matchup on the Week 10 slate. Two productive offenses meet two very different defenses, and both teams walk in missing key pass catchers.

The Matchup

San Francisco arrives at AT&T Stadium at 7-1, with its only loss coming at Atlanta, and Dallas sits at 4-5 in a game carrying the highest total on the slate. The points expectation fits the two offenses. San Francisco scores 29.4 points per game and Dallas scores 27.3, and both quarterbacks have protected the ball.

The difference sits underneath the scoring. San Francisco also defends, allowing 19.5 points per game, while Dallas allows 26.2. That gap shapes everything about how this game can be won, because only one of these teams can win it without scoring in the thirties.

Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,980 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and San Francisco completes 69.1 percent of its passes at 8.4 yards per attempt. Christian McCaffrey gives the offense its second engine, with 102 carries for 457 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, and George Kittle has 38 catches for 483 yards and 5 touchdowns.

San Francisco will play this game without Deebo Samuel Sr., who is out with a hamstring injury, and without Mike Evans, who is out with an Achilles injury. The receiver room is thinner than it should be, but the structure holds. McCaffrey and Kittle stress the middle of a defense on nearly every snap, and Dallas is missing safety P.J. Locke, who is out with a concussion, and cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who is out with an ankle injury.

Dak Prescott has thrown for 2,381 yards with 16 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and CeeDee Lamb has 70 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns. Lamb is good enough to carry a passing game by himself for stretches, and he will have to. George Pickens is out with a hamstring injury and tight end Jake Ferguson is out with a knee injury, so Dallas walks into this game without its second receiver and without its tight end.

Javonte Williams has 154 carries for 629 yards and 9 touchdowns, and his work matters more than usual. If Dallas cannot run the ball, San Francisco can tilt its coverage toward Lamb on every obvious passing down and make Prescott live on the hardest throws in football.

Fred Warner leads San Francisco with 77 tackles, and the 49ers convert 51.7 percent of their third downs, the kind of number that quietly decides a shootout. Dallas converts 45.3 percent, good but a step behind, and over four quarters that step is worth two or three extra possessions for the team that already defends better.

Dallas has been living in one-score games, beating Indianapolis 27-23 last week and losing 33-30 to Arizona the week before. San Francisco's season has been cleaner, capped by a 38-17 win over Las Vegas in Week 9. The Cowboys can absolutely trade scores in this building. Trading scores against a team that also stops people is the harder trick, and it is the one Dallas has to pull off.

Key Factors

The matchup that decides the Dallas side is CeeDee Lamb against a San Francisco corner group carrying its own questions. Deommodore Lenoir is questionable with a foot injury and Renardo Green is questionable with a back injury. Keep an eye on whether Deommodore Lenoir plays before placing a bet.

Keep an eye on whether Renardo Green plays before placing a bet. If both play, San Francisco can mix its coverages and still send help toward Lamb. If either sits, Prescott will find the replacement early and often, and Lamb's season says he does not need many invitations.

Dallas needs Lamb to be a superstar on Sunday because the rest of the passing game is missing. Pickens and Ferguson were the safety valves who punished defenses for doubling Lamb, and both are out. The Cowboys' offense becomes Lamb, Williams, and whatever Prescott creates late in downs.

San Francisco's balance is the problem Dallas has no clean answer for. The 49ers run for 135.2 yards per game and throw it at 8.4 yards per attempt, so a defense that loads up against McCaffrey gets hurt by Purdy, and a defense that sits back gets walked down the field a few yards at a time.

Dallas has allowed 26.2 points per game and its back end is missing two starters. Quinnen Williams leads the Cowboys with 5 sacks, and getting Purdy off his spot is the best defensive idea Dallas has. Purdy has thrown only 5 interceptions, though, and San Francisco's third-down rate means even good defensive plays often just delay the drive instead of ending it.

The case for Dallas at home is real. Prescott is playing clean football, Lamb is a genuine number one receiver, and the Cowboys have won shootouts in this building, including 38-21 over Philadelphia in Week 7. If this turns into a pure track meet, Dallas can win it, and San Francisco's missing receivers make the 49ers less explosive than their record suggests. That is the honest risk, and it is the way the pick loses.

The answer is that San Francisco does not need a track meet. The 49ers can win this game in the high twenties because their defense holds Dallas below its usual output, and Dallas, missing Pickens and Ferguson, has fewer ways to answer one bad quarter. One stalled stretch from the Cowboys is the whole ballgame, and San Francisco's defense is built to produce exactly one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.