Detroit Mercy Titans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 23 Illinois plays its first game of the season on Wednesday night at the State Farm Center, and Detroit Mercy arrives with a game already played and a 94-point opener on its ledger. The Titans won 7 games last season, and the step up in class is real. So is a 35.5-point spread against a favorite that has not taken the floor yet.

The Matchup

Detroit Mercy goes to Champaign on Wednesday night for the hardest game on its early schedule, and the Titans at least arrive warmed up. They opened on Monday with a 94-30 win over Michigan-Dearborn, a game that says more about the schedule than the team, except for this: Stephanie Utomi scored 21 points with 11 rebounds in 22 minutes, Paula Lopez added 15 points, and Makayla Jackson scored 12.

Utomi, Lopez and Jackson carry no injury designations for Wednesday. Last season Detroit Mercy finished 7-24, scoring 62.8 points per game and allowing 73.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Illinois has not played. Wednesday is the opener for a team that finished 22-12 last season, scoring 76.5 points per game and allowing 66.1, and that starts this season ranked No. 23 in the AP poll. The gap in pedigree is not in dispute.

A Big Ten roster at home, in its own building, against a Horizon League team that lost 24 games last season is supposed to win this game, and win it clearly. The only real question is the size of the win, because 35.5 points is an enormous ask of any team playing its first game, with new rotations, new roles, and the usual opening-night sloppiness that even good teams have to play through.

Key Factors

Detroit Mercy's one edge is timing. The Titans have already run their offense at game speed this week, while Illinois is working out its first-game kinks in real time.

Openers produce strange stretches: shots that normally fall rim out, defensive assignments get missed, and a favorite that expects to coast can find itself in a 12-point game at halftime with the crowd getting restless. Detroit Mercy does not need to win those stretches. It needs to survive them, and a team that has already played is better at surviving them than a team playing cold.

Utomi is the other reason the points are tempting. Detroit Mercy's scoring sits heavily on her, and she produced inside and on the glass on Monday, which matters against a bigger team: an underdog whose best player can score in the paint keeps getting points after the favorite stops pressing. Illinois also fouled 17.7 times per game last season, the kind of number that sends an underdog to the line all night and lets it score with the clock stopped. Free points are how big underdogs stay inside big numbers.

The honest counterpoint is that this can get away from Detroit Mercy fast. The Titans allowed 73.1 points per game last season and turned the ball over 16 times per game, and Illinois has the size and depth to turn those mistakes into runs.

If Utomi picks up early fouls, Detroit Mercy's offense loses its center, and a 7-win team from last season has no second act. Illinois is better at every position. The pick is not that Detroit Mercy is good. The pick is that 35.5 points is a lot to ask of a team that has not played a game yet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.