Queens University Royals vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
No. 8 Vanderbilt scored 112 points in its opener on Monday, and Queens walks into Memorial Gymnasium on Wednesday having already taken one SEC beating this week, 92-56 at Alabama. The spread says this one is worse: 56.5 points. Nobody is picking the winner here. The game is whether Vanderbilt's bench can hold a margin that size in the last ten minutes.
The Matchup
Queens is playing its second straight SEC road game, and the first one went about how these games go. The Royals lost 92-56 at Alabama on Monday, but the trip was not empty: Makayla Minshall scored 18 points and hit 4 of 6 from three, Ashantay Noble added 11, and Queens shot 7 of 17 from deep as a team. Minshall and Noble carry no injury designations for Wednesday. Last season Queens finished 10-20, scoring 59.3 points per game and allowing 67.5. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
Vanderbilt's opener was a demolition. The Commodores beat Lipscomb 112-53 on Monday, and Mikayla Blakes filled the box score in 27 minutes: 27 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals. Madison Greene scored 19 points off the bench, and Aubrey Galvan ran the offense with 16 points and 11 assists. Last season Vanderbilt finished 29-5, scoring 84.3 points per game and allowing 65.2, and the Commodores start this season ranked No. 8. Queens is not winning this game. The spread, 56.5 points, is the whole argument.
Key Factors
Margins this large are usually decided by the benches, not the starters. Vanderbilt won by 59 on Monday with Blakes playing just 27 minutes, and a coach protecting a star in November sits her again the moment this game is settled.
What covers or fails to cover 56.5 is the last eight minutes: a second unit playing against a Queens team that will keep running its offense and keep shooting threes. Queens made 7 of 17 from three at Alabama, and a team that can score from deep in garbage time is exactly the team that sneaks inside a number like this.
The counterpoint is ugly, and it is real. Queens just gave up 92 points, and last season the Royals turned the ball over 17.1 times per game. Vanderbilt's defense lives on exactly that: the Commodores grabbed 11.2 steals per game last season, and Blakes had 4 steals by herself on Monday.
If Queens' guards cannot handle the pressure in the first half, Vanderbilt does not need its bench to hold anything, because the margin could be past 56 before the starters sit. Queens also leans hard on Minshall, and foul trouble for her ends the Royals' one reliable source of points.
What Queens has going for it is the shape of the week. This is Vanderbilt's second laugher in three days, and focus is the first thing that goes in those games. The Commodores are good enough to win by 70 if they play forty angry minutes. November favorites almost never play forty angry minutes in a game that is over by halftime. Queens needs to be merely bad, not buried, and one hot shooter plus eight minutes of bench-versus-bench basketball is a workable path to losing by 45 instead of 57.
Vanderbilt is the far better team and should win big at home for the second time this week. Queens has a shooter who proved on Monday she can score in an SEC building, though, and covering a number this large usually comes down to the last few minutes, when the favorite's starters are done for the night. Take the points with Queens University Royals +56.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/4) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:30 PM CT |
| How to Watch | SECN+ |
| Venue | Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -56.5 |
| Total | 148.5 |
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