Georgia State vs Arkansas State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

Georgia State averages 452.7 yards and 36.5 points behind Cameran Brown and his 13 touchdown passes, while Arkansas State leans on Trey Owens and his 1,631 passing yards at home in Jonesboro.

01The Matchup

Georgia State travels to Jonesboro at 4-2 with one of the most balanced offenses in this set of games, averaging 452.7 yards and 36.5 points per game. The Panthers throw for 246.7 yards per game at 8.2 yards per attempt and run for 206.0 yards at 5.2 yards per carry, with 14 passing touchdowns and 13 rushing touchdowns.

Cameran Brown has gone 102 of 156 for 1,291 yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, Lanear McCrary Jr. leads the ground game with 385 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Rodshaun Dorsey has turned 21 catches into 333 yards and 7 touchdowns. Arkansas State is 3-4 and averages 366.0 yards and 27.4 points per game behind Trey Owens, who has thrown for 1,631 yards with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and Hunter Summers, who leads the Red Wolves with 422 receiving yards.

02Key Factors

The pass rush gap is the widest in this game. Georgia State has recorded 19 sacks in 6 games, with Xavier Esqillion accounting for 7 of them, while Arkansas State has managed just 3 sacks in 7 games. Owens will be throwing under pressure that Brown rarely sees. Arkansas State does counter through the secondary, with 7 interceptions against just 2 for Georgia State and a plus-2 turnover margin against an even mark for the Panthers.

The ground game tilts the other way: Georgia State runs for 206.0 yards per game behind a 5.2 yards per carry average, while Arkansas State manages 133.0 yards at 4.0 per carry, and top back Solomon Baggett has 287 yards and 2 touchdowns. On third down the Panthers convert 47.5% against 44.6% for the Red Wolves.

03The Pick

A short road favorite with the better rushing attack and the far better pass rush is a sound profile. Georgia State scores 9.1 more points per game, can lean on McCrary and the ground game if the Panthers build a lead, and brings 19 sacks against an Arkansas State front that has produced almost no pressure of its own.

The Red Wolves interception total is the reason to keep this from becoming a bigger play, since 7 picks can flip a one-score game. Even accounting for the home field at Centennial Bank Stadium, the Panthers hold too many edges for a line under a field goal. Editorial pick: Georgia State -2.5.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.