Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas Tommies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

St. Thomas is laying 8.5 points at home on a three-point diet that produced 87 points one night and 62 the next. Green Bay has already played a power-conference road game and brings its own shooters to Saint Paul.

The Matchup

Green Bay visits St. Thomas on Sunday afternoon at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena in Saint Paul, on the Summit League Network, with St. Thomas an 8.5-point favorite, a total of 149.5, and the Tommies priced at -410 on the moneyline against Green Bay at +320. Green Bay is 1-1 out of the Horizon League and St. Thomas is 1-1 out of the Summit League, and this is a matchup of two good mid-majors priced like a mismatch.

St. Thomas split its week on the three-point line, which is where this team lives. The Tommies beat Presbyterian 87-78 at home, making 12 of their 24 threes, with Tim Franks scoring 24 points and making 6 of his 9 attempts from deep, and Hayden Tibbits adding 16 points and going 8-of-8 at the free throw line.

Then they went to Minnesota and lost 76-62, shooting 9-of-36 from three. Across the full season last year St. Thomas went 24-10, scoring 81.76 points a game and allowing 71.56, an excellent Summit League team. But the variance is the point: the same shot diet produced 87 points and then 62.

Green Bay's week was a rout and a reality check. The Phoenix beat Lawrence 94-51, making 15 of their 26 threes, and then lost 81-64 at Cincinnati, a power-conference road game where Orlando Lovejoy scored 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting and Clarence Payia added 12. The flaw was the ball: 21 turnovers against Cincinnati's pressure.

Across the full season last year Green Bay went 18-15, scoring 74.82 points a game and allowing 74.85, essentially a break-even team, while this season's start, 79.0 points scored and 66.0 allowed a game, actually shades toward the Phoenix in this matchup. An 8.5-point spread says the gap is a class. The evidence says it is a coin flip with home court.

Key Factors

The three-point math decides this game, and it cuts for the underdog more often than the price admits. Both teams shoot it in volume, which means the game will be decided by whose shooters have the ordinary night rather than the great one.

Franks is the best shooter on the floor and his 6 made threes against Presbyterian are the favorite's engine, but St. Thomas attempted 36 threes at Minnesota and lost by 14, and a home favorite that dependent on one shot type gives the underdog a live path every time the rim shrinks. Green Bay made 15 threes in its win and 7 at Cincinnati, a floor high enough to keep a game like this attached.

Green Bay's turnovers are the honest worry, because 21 giveaways at Cincinnati is how an 8.5-point underdog loses by 20. The counterweight is the opponent: St. Thomas forced only 4 steals against Presbyterian and 6 at Minnesota, a defense that plays honestly rather than hunting the ball.

Lovejoy handled himself against Cincinnati's athletes, and a Phoenix team that keeps its giveaways in the low teens gets to play this game on shooting, where it belongs. St. Thomas also gives the ball away itself, with Austin Herro committing 5 turnovers against Presbyterian.

The counterpoint is that St. Thomas was simply the better program last season, 24 wins against Green Bay's 18, and it is home in its own new arena, where the Tommies shot the lights out in their opener. Franks and Tibbits are proven scorers, and if the home threes fall at the Presbyterian rate, Green Bay's shooting cannot keep up and the favorite covers going away. The underdog's case is that one hot home night against Presbyterian is being priced as the Tommies' identity, when their other game this week, against a real defense, looked nothing like it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.