UIC Flames vs Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
UIC is 3-0 and allowing just 58.3 points per game, a defensive profile that travels to Moraga to face a Saint Mary's team scoring 96.7 a night.
The Matchup
Saint Mary's is 2-1 at the University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga, scoring 96.7 points per game and allowing 81.7. Joshua Dent leads the Gaels at 18.0 points per game, and Mantas Juzenas has been a force at 10.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. Last season's 27-6 team is the backbone of the Gaels' rating, and the blend of that season with this one keeps Saint Mary's respected.
UIC is 3-0 out of the Missouri Valley Conference and has defended better than anyone in this matchup: 85.7 points scored and only 58.3 allowed per game. Rashund Washington Jr. leads the Flames at 17.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, and Mekhi Lowery adds 4.7 assists per game. UIC went 19-16 last season, and on the blended ratings the Flames actually sit slightly ahead of the Gaels, which makes the home favorite's price worth questioning. Washington and Dent both carry no injury designations.
Key Factors
The decisive contrast is defensive. UIC has allowed 58.3 points per game; Saint Mary's has allowed 81.7. Even allowing for schedule differences across three games, that is a canyon, and a UIC team that can get stops does not need its offense to match the Gaels shot for shot.
The counterpoint is Moraga and the glass. Saint Mary's at home is a proven commodity, Juzenas at 10.0 rebounds per game can manufacture extra possessions, and the Gaels' 96.7-point offense may simply be too much for a defense that has not faced this level of execution yet. If Dent gets comfortable early, the home crowd and the Gaels' pedigree take over. But getting points with the better defensive team, one whose blended numbers are every bit as strong, is the value side of this game.
Saint Mary's is at home in Moraga, but UIC has defended at an elite level so far and its blended profile is every bit the Gaels' equal. Take UIC Flames +5.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/13) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 9:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga |
| Spread | Saint Mary's Gaels -5.5 |
| Total | 151.5 |
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -245 |
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