Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Purdue is 0-2, has already lost at Mackey Arena this season, and is still laying 15.5 against an Illinois State team that scored 85 on the road at Saint Mary's. The market is pricing last season's Boilermakers. This season's have not shown up yet.

The Matchup

Illinois State visits Purdue on Monday night at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, on FS1, with Purdue a 15.5-point favorite, a total of 144.5, and the Boilermakers priced at -1,350 on the moneyline against the Redbirds at +800. Purdue is 0-2. Illinois State is 1-1, and the Redbirds have looked like the steadier team through two games.

Purdue lost 78-72 to Gonzaga, then lost 83-80 to Valparaiso in this building. Daniel Jacobsen has been excellent at 25.0 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, and Omer Mayer is averaging 5.0 assists, but the Boilermakers have allowed 78 and 83. Illinois State lost 90-85 at Saint Mary's, a hard place to play, then beat Central State 100-55. Johnny Kinziger leads the Redbirds at 23.0 points and 4.5 assists a game, and Noah Cleveland leads them at 5.0 rebounds a game.

Last season explains the price and also undermines it. Purdue went 27-8, scoring 81.7 points a game and allowing 70.1, one of the Big Ten's best teams. Illinois State went 20-12, scoring 75.1 and allowing 68.4, a good Missouri Valley team that defended.

But the Purdue numbers were built by a group that has not carried them into this season: the Boilermakers are winless, their defense is allowing 80.5 a game, and the one constant is Jacobsen inside. Illinois State's Kinziger gives the Redbirds a guard who can match Purdue's backcourt scoring, which is a different look from the committee the Redbirds used last season.

Key Factors

Mackey Arena is supposed to be the argument for Purdue, and this season it is evidence for the other side. Valparaiso already won here this season, 83-80. A home crowd helps a team that defends; Purdue is not defending, and a restless crowd can turn on a favorite that falls behind early.

Kinziger is the matchup problem. He is scoring 23.0 a game and creating at 4.5 assists a game, and Purdue's perimeter defense has been the leak in both losses. If Kinziger gets the Redbirds into their offense early, Illinois State can trade baskets instead of chasing the game, and 15.5 points is a deep cushion for a team that defended the way the Redbirds did last season, at 68.4 allowed a game.

The honest counterpoint is that Purdue's talent edge is real and Jacobsen is a mismatch inside. He is averaging 25.0 points for a program that went 27-8 last season, Illinois State's 100 points came against Central State, and an 0-2 Purdue team at home is a cornered favorite. If the Boilermakers finally defend at last season's level, they can win this going away. Two games of evidence say that defense has not arrived yet.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.