Illinois State Redbirds vs North Dakota State Bison Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Illinois State is a road favorite at the Scheels Center behind Johnny Kinziger and his 19.3 points per game, but North Dakota State went 27-8 last season and defends Fargo with a proud home record.

The Matchup

Illinois State travels to the Scheels Center in Fargo as a road favorite despite a 1-2 record, and the reason is Johnny Kinziger. The Missouri Valley Conference guard leads the Redbirds with 19.3 points and 3.7 assists per game, the best individual scoring mark in this game, and Noah Cleveland adds 4.7 rebounds per game. Illinois State scores 81.3 points per game and allows 73.7 points per game this season.

North Dakota State is 1-3 out of the Summit League, scoring 76.0 points per game and allowing 83.5 points per game, numbers that explain the market price but clash with what this program was months ago. Rob Diaz III leads the Bison with 14.0 points per game, Andy Stefonowicz hands out 5.0 assists per game, the best playmaking mark in the game, and Kaden Tate adds 6.0 rebounds per game.

The rating behind the projection blends this season with last season in equal parts because Illinois State has played three games and North Dakota State four, and the blend changes this matchup completely. The Bison went 27-8 last season and outscored opponents by 10.1 points per game, so their blended differential is plus 1.3 despite the rough start, while Illinois State, 23-13 last season, blends to plus 6.9. Add the Fargo home court and the projection lands on a near even game, not a road favorite pulling away. Kinziger, Diaz and Stefonowicz all carry no injury designations into this game.

Key Factors

The first factor is Kinziger against the Bison defense. North Dakota State allows 83.5 points per game, and if Kinziger gets to his spots early, Illinois State can score enough on the road to justify favoritism. The Bison need Stefonowicz, at 5.0 assists per game, to answer with organized offense rather than trading quick shots with a hotter scorer.

The second factor is the glass and the pace. Tate at 6.0 rebounds per game gives North Dakota State an edge over Cleveland at 4.7, and extra possessions at home are how a short home underdog turns a projection of a dead even game into a win. Illinois State scores 81.3 points per game and will want pace; the Bison are better served making every trip down the floor deliberate.

The counterpoint is real and it is the Bison defense: a team allowing 83.5 points per game has not earned much trust, and if the early season leakage is who North Dakota State is now rather than a small sample against a tough opening stretch, Kinziger and the Redbirds will expose it again. The pick banks on last season at 27-8 meaning more than four games in November, and on Fargo being a genuinely difficult place for a Missouri Valley road favorite.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.