Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - WTA Finals

Both women lost on Sunday, and the loser of this one is all but out of the semifinals. Jessica Pegula has the better season and the better ranking, but Marta Kostyuk has beaten her twice this year without dropping a set.

The Matchup

Jessica Pegula is the No. 5 seed and the world No. 5, and she has won 50 matches this season, the most in this group. She needed that steadiness on Sunday, taking Coco Gauff to a deciding set before losing 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 in a match that ran 2 hours and 39 minutes. She is winless in the group so far, and so is the woman across the net.

Marta Kostyuk is here as the first alternate, in the draw because Elena Rybakina withdrew on the eve of the event, and she is unseeded and ranked No. 10. Her opener was shorter and rougher: Linda Noskova beat her 6-2, 6-4 on Sunday. Kostyuk has won 35 matches this season, and two of them, both in this fixture, are the reason this match is not the mismatch the rankings suggest.

Kostyuk has beaten Pegula twice this season, both times in straight sets. She won 6-0, 6-3 in the Brisbane semifinal in January and 6-1, 6-4 in Madrid in April. Pegula leads their career series four wins to three, and she won their Beijing meeting last October in three sets, but the two matches played this year both went the same way, and both were quick.

Key Factors

Kostyuk's problem on Sunday was Noskova's flat pace, and Pegula does not hit that ball. Pegula wins by taking the ball early and redirecting it, and Kostyuk's wins in this fixture came from landing the first heavy strike and keeping Pegula moving side to side. When Kostyuk serves well enough to start points on her own terms, Pegula's timing game has to be perfect, because the rallies get decided before she can settle into them.

The legs argue for Kostyuk, too. Pegula spent 2 hours and 39 minutes on court on Sunday and lost the deciding set 6-2 as the match ran away from her late. Kostyuk was off court in straight sets. A group match neither woman can afford to lose tends to tighten up late, and that is exactly where a fresher underdog with games in hand becomes hard to shake.

The counterpoint is Pegula's floor. She is the more reliable player across a season, and her Beijing win over Kostyuk last October went the distance because she refused to go away after dropping the second set. If her return starts landing at Kostyuk's feet, the first-strike plan gets rushed, and the favorite can win this in two close sets that still break a games cushion. Kostyuk's first serve set the terms in both of her wins this year, and Pegula will attack the second ball from the first game.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.