Coco Gauff vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - WTA Finals

Coco Gauff has to win on Thursday and then spend the evening scoreboard-watching. Marta Kostyuk cannot advance, but a player with nothing to lose and two career wins in this matchup is a dangerous kind of spoiler.

The Matchup

Coco Gauff is the No. 4 seed and the world No. 4, and her week has swung hard in both directions. She beat Jessica Pegula 6-4, 6-7, 6-2 on Sunday, then lost to Linda Noskova 6-3, 6-3 on Tuesday in 75 minutes, broken five times. She is 48-16 this season, and she plays first on Thursday: a win keeps her alive, but if Pegula beats Noskova in the night match, Gauff goes home anyway.

Marta Kostyuk has no such arithmetic left. The first alternate, in the draw after Elena Rybakina withdrew on the eve of the event, she lost to Noskova 6-2, 6-4 on Sunday and to Pegula 6-2, 7-5 on Tuesday, and she cannot reach the semifinals. She is 35-14 this season, she arrives on a five-match losing streak, and she is active with no injury designation, as is Gauff. What she has instead of stakes is freedom, plus a history in this matchup that does not read like a walkover.

Gauff leads their head-to-head four wins to two, and the most recent meeting was a rout, a 6-2, 6-2 Gauff win in the Cincinnati quarterfinals in August. But Kostyuk won in Doha last year, 6-2, 7-5, and in three sets on clay in Stuttgart in 2024, and two of Gauff's wins needed a deciding set. The series has produced both versions of this match, and Thursday's price only respects one of them.

Key Factors

Kostyuk's return is the reason to take the games. She stands in on the second serve, she takes the ball early, and the serve she gets to attack on Thursday is the one Noskova broke five times in 75 minutes on Tuesday. Gauff's second serve has been the pressure point of her whole week, and Kostyuk's entire game is built to press exactly there.

A returner who starts return games on the front foot does not need to win the match to stay inside a cushion this size. She needs the games she has been giving away early in sets this week to come back to their usual level.

The situational edge runs the same way. Gauff carries the must-win burden and plays without knowing whether a win will even count, while Kostyuk plays the last match of her season with the pressure entirely on the other side of the net.

Kostyuk has played loose in that spot before: her Doha win over Gauff last year came in straight sets against a higher-ranked opponent with no expectation attached. Five straight losses say her level is down, and that is priced in. The question is whether her level is down by this much, against this serve, in a match she can play freely.

What beats the pick is the Cincinnati version of Gauff, and Kostyuk herself described it after that match: she said Gauff destroyed her there and that she had no chance. When Gauff's first serve lands and her forehand dictates from the first ball, Kostyuk's return position becomes a liability instead of a weapon, and cushions die quickly, as they did in Wuhan in 2024, a 6-4, 6-1 Gauff win. If Tuesday's passive Gauff was the blip and August's version shows up, this is over in two sets and the games go with it.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.