Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Michigan Wolverines Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Michigan opens its national title defense at No. 16 with a roster that returns barely a third of last season's scoring, laying 28.5 against an Oakland team Greg Kampe has coached for 43 seasons. The gap between these teams last season was about 17 points a night, not 28.5.

The Matchup

Michigan is a 28.5-point favorite over Oakland at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Monday night, with a total of 156.5, on the Big Ten Network. It is the season opener for both, and it opens Michigan's defense of last season's national championship. The Wolverines finished 37-3, scoring 87.3 points per game and allowing 69.5. Oakland finished 16-16, scoring 82.6 and allowing 81.7. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Michigan's change is the story. The Wolverines lost three first-round picks from the title team, Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara, who combined to average about 40 points a night, and the players who return supplied only about a third of last season's scoring. Cadeau is back after averaging 10.5 points and 5.8 assists, and McKenney scored 9.9 a game, but four transfers and six freshmen fill out the rotation for first-year head coach Mike Boynton Jr. Michigan also opens without five-star freshman Brandon McCoy, who is out for the season with an ACL injury suffered on a summer trip to Europe.

Oakland brings back just two players who saw action last season, and both matter here. Nassim Mashhour was averaging just under 10 points a game before a torn MCL ended his season in early December, he has shot over 40 percent from three in his Oakland career, and he scored 12 in the exhibition against Tennessee State.

Warren Marshall IV is the other returner, and the help is new: Belal El Shakery averaged 11.4 points and 8.2 rebounds at New Hampshire last season, and Chris Fields Jr. averaged 9.7 points and 6.9 rebounds at Campbell. Greg Kampe is in his 43rd season coaching Oakland, and his zone has been slowing down bigger teams for most of them.

Key Factors

Last season's numbers do not get to 28.5. Michigan outscored its opponents by 17.8 points a night, Oakland by 0.9, so the full distance between the two teams was about 17 points before any edge for playing at home. The spread asks for 28.5 from a Michigan rotation that has never played a real game together, in the first game that counts, with its most talented freshman already lost for the season.

The scoring environment gives Oakland a path. Oakland games averaged about 164 points last season and Michigan games about 157, so a total of 156.5 is no stretch, and every extra possession is one more chance for a big underdog to trade baskets instead of watching a lead grow. Mashhour's shooting matters for the same reason: a guard who makes threes at that rate stretches a defense that is still learning its rotations, and Oakland only needs to keep scoring, not to win.

The honest counterpoint is last season's version of this game. Michigan beat Oakland 121-78 in last season's opener, a 43-point win, and if this Michigan team shoots like that one did early, no cushion is big enough.

The Wolverines' size around the rim is a real problem for an Oakland team that struggled to finish defensive possessions with a rebound last season, something Kampe has talked about all fall. If Oakland gives up second chances all night, this gets away from them. The bet is on a rebuilt favorite being asked for a number its own returning core has never had to carry.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.