Le Moyne Dolphins vs Creighton Bluejays Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Creighton is laying 26.5 points after a workmanlike opener built on one hot shooter. Le Moyne just scored at Nebraska behind a backcourt that passed as well as it shot. Big East home games are hard. This spread still looks rich.

The Matchup

Le Moyne visits Creighton on Thursday night at CHI Health Center Omaha, with Creighton a 26.5-point favorite, a total of 155.5, on ESPN+. The building and the brand say blowout. The recent history of these two programs says something quieter, and the spread has to answer for the difference.

Last season Creighton finished 16-18, scoring 75.2 points a game and allowing 75.2. Le Moyne finished 15-17, scoring 73.0 and allowing 73.2. The starting point matters: a year ago these were two near .500 teams separated by almost nothing on paper, and one of them is now laying 26.5 at home.

The openers split the story. Creighton beat Kansas City 76-61 at home, a controlled win that never turned into a rout. Le Moyne lost 106-64 at Nebraska, a beating on the scoreboard that still contained one useful signal: the Dolphins' backcourt kept scoring and creating against a Big Ten defense, on the road, long after the game was decided. Le Moyne also stays in Nebraska for this one, a short trip from Lincoln to Omaha instead of a cross country flight home and back out.

Key Factors

Le Moyne's guards give the underdog a floor. Trevor Roe scored 20 points at Nebraska on 5-of-11 shooting from three, with 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Jayden Teat added 14 points with 5 assists.

A big underdog with two guards who can both score and pass can break pressure, find shots late in the clock, and avoid the eight minute scoreless stretch that turns a 15 point game into a 30 point game. Roe's shooting in particular matters in Omaha: one guard who can answer runs from deep changes how a favorite has to defend the whole floor.

Creighton's opener was narrower than the final score suggests. The Bluejays shot 41 percent as a team, handed out only 13 assists, and leaned hard on Wes Enis, who scored 25 points on 7-of-18 shooting with 5 threes. Jackson McAndrew, a starter, scored 5 points on 1-of-6 shooting. Favorites cover 26.5 when the scoring comes from everywhere and the margin grows in every rotation. Creighton on Monday was a one man scoring show plus defense, and that is a harder way to build a margin this large.

The counterpoint is Le Moyne's ball security and the Nebraska film, and both are damning if they repeat. The Dolphins turned it over 17 times at Nebraska and lost by 42, and Creighton's defense just forced Kansas City into mistakes all night on the way to 15 steals.

If Creighton's pressure turns Le Moyne's guards into turnover sources instead of creators, and Enis shoots like he did on Monday, this game can get away early in front of a loud Omaha crowd. The bet is that two battle tested guards, a short in-state trip, and a favorite whose own opener was a grind keep this margin in the teens or low twenties, well inside a very ambitious number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.