Lindenwood Lions vs Omaha Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Both teams are 2-2 at Baxter Arena, but the form lines point in opposite directions: Lindenwood is scoring 88.5 points per game while Omaha is allowing 82.3 points per game.

The Matchup

On records alone this looks even at Baxter Arena in Omaha, with both teams 2-2, but the underlying numbers are not even at all. Lindenwood, out of the Ohio Valley Conference, scores 88.5 points per game and allows 70.5 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by 18.0 points per game. Makhan Diouf leads the Lions with 13.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, and Malek Archie adds 4.0 assists per game, a balanced attack without a single point of failure.

Omaha, out of the Summit League, scores 68.5 points per game and allows 82.3 points per game, getting outscored by 13.8 points per game despite the .500 record. Deke Thompson leads the Mavericks with 14.2 points per game, Cahmai Crosby adds 4.3 assists per game, and Isaac Ondekane pulls down 7.5 rebounds per game. The market still makes Omaha the home favorite, which says more about the building than about anything the Mavericks have done on the floor so far.

Both teams have played four games, so the rating behind the projection blends this season with last season in equal parts. The blend softens both extremes: Lindenwood went 18-15 last season and blends to plus 11.5 points per game, while Omaha went 16-17 and blends to minus 7.1. Even after that regression the gap between these teams is wide, and the projection has the road team winning the game outright at Baxter Arena. Diouf, Archie, Thompson and Ondekane all carry no injury designations into this game.

Key Factors

The first factor is the defensive end, where this game is lopsided. Omaha allows 82.3 points per game and now faces an offense scoring 88.5, while Lindenwood allows 70.5 and faces an offense scoring only 68.5. Both ends of the floor tilt the same direction, and a home favorite with a losing scoring profile on both ends is a fragile favorite.

The second factor is the frontcourt. Ondekane at 7.5 rebounds per game is Omaha's best counter, a half step ahead of Diouf at 6.3, and if the Mavericks can manufacture extra possessions at home they can keep a game their offense otherwise struggles to win. Crosby at 4.3 assists per game against Archie at 4.0 is nearly even, so the creation battle will not rescue Omaha either.

The counterpoint is the building and the favorite's desperation: Omaha is at home, Thompson at 14.2 points per game is the best individual scorer in the game, and a 2-2 team that has defended this poorly usually tightens up at some point in front of its own crowd. If that correction comes tonight and Lindenwood cools from its 88.5 point pace, the Mavericks can win a grinder. Nothing in the blended numbers supports spotting Lindenwood points in this spot, though, which is why the road team getting points is the side.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.