Omaha Mavericks vs Utah State Aggies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Utah State opened with a rout at the Spectrum and now hosts an Omaha team playing its second game in Utah in two days. Saturday in Logan asks whether tired legs can survive one of the loudest small gyms in the West.

The Matchup

Omaha visits Utah State on Saturday afternoon at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan, on YouTube, with Utah State a 26.5-point favorite and a total of 152.5. Omaha is 1-1 and Utah State is 1-0. It is a Summit League team walking into one of the hardest road gyms in the West, and the week each team has had explains the size of this number as much as the rosters do.

Utah State went 29-7 last season, scoring 82.2 points a game and allowing 70.7, then opened this season by beating Idaho State 94-58 at home. Omaha went 16-17 last season, scoring 76.0 and allowing 76.4, and has split its first two games this season, averaging 70.0 points scored and 86.5 allowed across the two.

The Aggies have played only once, so their team numbers still lean on last season. The one game of this season's evidence is loud, though: the biggest night in the opener came off the Utah State bench, where Kingston Tosi scored 26 points, and Omaha's second game of the week rewrote its first, as a home win over Mid America Christian was followed by a 108-67 loss at BYU on November 6.

The opener showed how Utah State wins big. Tosi scored his 26 on 11-of-16 shooting with 5 rebounds and 3 steals, Will Hornseth scored 16 on 8-of-12 shooting with 6 rebounds, Solomon Callaghan added 14, and Dallin Hall handed out 7 assists.

The Aggies recorded 26 assists as a team, outrebounded Idaho State 48-25, and scored 60 points in the paint. Omaha counters with its guards. Deke Thompson scored 17 with 4 threes at BYU, Cahmai Crosby scored 11 in Provo after scoring 21 in the opener, and Jonny Jordan Jr. added 10 off the bench at BYU.

Key Factors

The schedule spot is the first factor, and it is brutal for the visitor. Omaha played at BYU on Friday night, gave up 108 points, and now plays again Saturday afternoon in Logan, a second road game in Utah in about a day with no time to fix anything. Utah State has been home since its opener and has had days to prepare for this exact game. Tired legs show up on the glass and at the three-point line first, and those are the two places this matchup already tilts hardest toward the home team.

The glass and the paint are the second factor. Utah State pulled down 48 rebounds in its opener and lived inside, while Omaha was outrebounded 46-27 at BYU and allowed 46 points in the paint and 16 made threes.

Isaac Ondekane, who had 7 points and 7 rebounds in Omaha's opener, was held to 2 points and 3 rebounds in Provo, and if Hornseth and the Aggie frontcourt take the paint away the same way, Omaha's guards are shooting over length all afternoon. The total of 152.5 expects pace, and pace on short rest favors the deeper home rotation.

The counterpoint is the number itself and Omaha's backcourt. Laying 26.5 means the favorite has to keep defending after the game is decided, and Crosby and Thompson are exactly the kind of guards who keep scoring in a lost game, with 21 and 17 points in their best outings this week.

If Utah State empties its bench early and Omaha's guards trade baskets late, the margin can settle in the teens. The Aggies cover this only if the second unit, the group Tosi just led to 26 points, treats the last ten minutes like the first ten.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.