Little Rock Trojans vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

New Mexico has scored 100 and 94 in its two home games, and Little Rock arrives winless with an offense that leans on one scorer. The Pit does the rest on most nights like this.

The Matchup

Little Rock visits New Mexico on Tuesday night at The Pit in Albuquerque, with New Mexico a 21.5-point favorite, a total of 156.5, and the Lobos priced at -4,000 on the moneyline against Little Rock at +1,600. The Lobos have turned their building into a scoring showcase through two games, and Little Rock's job is to survive the first ten minutes.

New Mexico is 2-0, with a 100-60 win over Utah Tech and a 94-65 win over Northern Arizona, both at home. The Lobos have scored 97.0 points a game and allowed 62.5, with 19.5 assists a game driving the offense. Jake Hall has been spectacular at 26.5 points a game, Chris Howell leads them at 6.5 assists a game, and Benjamin Schuch leads them at 6.0 rebounds a game. Last season New Mexico went 23-10, scored 80.6 a game, and allowed 70.8, so a strong home team is the program's normal state.

Little Rock is 0-2, losing 82-72 to VCU and 83-79 to Southeastern Louisiana. Jah'Likai King leads the Trojans at 20.5 points a game, Bradyn Hubbard leads them at 6.5 rebounds a game, and Tyrese Lacey leads them at just 2.0 assists a game, which tells the story of the offense: King creates, and everyone else waits. Little Rock has scored 75.5 a game and allowed 82.5. Last season the Trojans went 12-20, scored 70.5, and allowed 74.1.

Key Factors

The playmaking gap is the widest one in this game. New Mexico is averaging 19.5 assists a game with Howell at 6.5, while Little Rock is averaging 10.0 as a team and its leader sits at 2.0. Against a Lobos defense that pressures the ball in a loud building, an offense with one creator tends to break down into late-clock isolations, and that is how a 12-point game becomes a 24-point game in six minutes.

Hall is the second factor, and he is a hard cover for Little Rock. At 26.5 points a game on a team shooting 53 percent, he is scoring efficiently rather than forcing volume, and the Trojans do not have an obvious answer for him on the perimeter. Little Rock has allowed 82.5 a game to VCU and Southeastern Louisiana, neither of which plays at New Mexico's pace or shoots it like the Lobos have so far.

The counterpoint deserves respect, because Little Rock has not been blown out. The Trojans lost by 10 and by 4, King can genuinely score, and New Mexico's two wins came against Utah Tech and Northern Arizona at home, not against resistance like this. If King gets 25 and Little Rock slows the game down, 21.5 is a big number to chase. But this is Little Rock's first road game, it comes at altitude in the loudest building on its early schedule, and the Trojans' thin playmaking is exactly what The Pit punishes.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.