Arizona Wildcats vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

No. 12 Arizona is a small road favorite at Neville Arena, where Auburn is 2-0 and allowing just 56.0 points per game behind Tahaad Pettiford and his 22.0 points per game.

The Matchup

This is the marquee game of the night: No. 12 Arizona, 2-1 out of the Big 12 Conference, walks into Neville Arena to face a 2-0 Auburn team from the Southeastern Conference that has barely been touched. Auburn scores 83.5 points per game and allows a remarkable 56.0 points per game this season. Tahaad Pettiford leads the Tigers with 22.0 points and 3.5 assists per game, and Narcisse Ngoy owns the glass at 10.0 rebounds per game.

Arizona scores 89.7 points per game and allows 75.7 points per game, and Ivan Kharchenkov has been a force, leading the Wildcats with 24.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per game. JJ Mandaquit adds 5.0 assists per game, the best playmaking mark in the game. Kharchenkov against Ngoy inside is the matchup that will decide long stretches of this one.

The rating behind the projection blends this season with last season in equal parts because Arizona has played three games and Auburn only two, and the blend treats these teams as near equals. Arizona went 36-3 last season, a powerhouse pedigree that pulls its blended differential to plus 15.4, while Auburn went 22-16 and blends to plus 15.9 once its smothering start on defense is averaged in.

Dead even on the blended numbers, with Neville Arena supplying the home court, and the projection follows that math. Kharchenkov, Mandaquit, Pettiford and Ngoy all carry no injury designations into this game.

Key Factors

The first factor is whether Auburn's defense is real. Allowing 56.0 points per game through two games is a tiny sample, but the Tigers now get the ultimate test from an Arizona offense scoring 89.7 points per game built around Kharchenkov at 24.7 points per game. If Auburn can force Arizona into late clock possessions and keep Kharchenkov from living at the rim, the home crowd becomes a genuine weapon.

The second factor is the rebounding duel. Ngoy at 10.0 rebounds per game against Kharchenkov at 9.0 is the finest individual battle in this game, and second chances in a projected one possession game are worth more than any scheme adjustment. Pettiford at 22.0 points per game gives Auburn a closer who can answer Arizona runs, which matters in a game with a total of 159.5 that promises pace and shot making on both sides.

The counterpoint is Arizona's ceiling: a 36-3 team last season with the best player on the floor in Kharchenkov can win anywhere, and if he dominates Ngoy and gets Auburn's frontcourt in foul trouble, the Tigers lose their defensive spine and their glass at the same time. The pick trusts the home floor and Pettiford's shot making to keep Auburn in front of the number in a game the blended ratings call even.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.