Long Beach State Beach vs Montana State Bobcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Montana State is laying double digits at home off a loss, and Long Beach State just played Utah within three on the road. Saturday in Bozeman is a big number asked of a team that has not won yet.

The Matchup

Long Beach State visits Montana State on Saturday afternoon at Worthington Arena in Bozeman, on ESPN+, with Montana State a 10.5-point favorite and a total of 147.5. Both teams are 0-1. A Big West team travels to a Big Sky gym at altitude, and the home team is laying double digits, so the question is simple: did either opener justify a number this big?

Montana State went 18-14 last season, scoring 77.9 points a game and allowing 71.4, then opened this season with an 84-74 loss at Colorado State. Long Beach State went 10-22 last season, scoring 74.9 and allowing 77.8, then opened with a 66-63 loss at Utah.

With one game played on each side, the team numbers here lean on last season. This season's first look cuts the other way from the spread, though: the Beach just held a power conference team to 66 points in its own building, while the Bobcats gave up 84 and were beaten on the glass 39-27 in Fort Collins.

Long Beach State's opener was a guard's game. McCaden Adams scored 21 points, Yohann Sissoko scored 15 on 6-of-9 shooting, and JJ Gray added 10, while the Beach forced 15 Utah turnovers and recorded 11 steals. Montana State got 17 points from Jeremiah Davis and 15 off the bench from Howie Keene at Colorado State, with Christian King scoring 13 and grabbing 7 rebounds.

Key Factors

Montana State is a good home team, but its opener showed a defense that allowed 84 points and a rebounding effort that lost by 12, and laying 10.5 requires a team to defend and rebound well enough to build separation and keep it. Long Beach State just proved it can do the opposite job on the road: slow a favorite down, force turnovers, and keep a game in the sixties deep into the second half. The Beach had 11 steals at Utah, and a team that takes the ball away creates the empty possessions that kill a big favorite's margin.

Adams is the second piece. A guard who scores 21 on the road in a power conference gym gives Long Beach State a closer, someone who can get a basket when a double digit lead starts to feel comfortable for the home side. Sissoko's efficiency inside, 15 points on 9 shots, means the Beach do not need Adams to do it alone. The total of 147.5 sits well above the 129 points scored in the opener Long Beach State lost 66-63 at Utah, and a slower game makes every point of this spread heavier.

The counterpoint is Bozeman itself and Montana State's shooting. Worthington Arena at altitude is a hard trip on short rest, the Bobcats made 12 threes at Colorado State, and Davis and Keene give them two scorers who can heat up in the same stretch. If Montana State shoots like that at home and Long Beach State's legs go in the second half at elevation, the Bobcats can run this out to a comfortable margin late and the points never matter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.