Long Island University Sharks vs Fordham Rams Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

LIU is winless and Fordham is laying 12.5 at Rose Hill, but the Sharks were a 24-win team last season and this spread prices their first four games as the whole story.

The Matchup

LIU is 0-4, and the start is ugly on its face: the Sharks are scoring 61.5 points a game and allowing 73.8. The fuller picture is a team that won 24 games last season, scored 73.6 a game, and allowed 71.7, now four games into a season in which the offense has simply not arrived yet. Fordham is 2-1 at Rose Hill, scoring 75.3 a game and allowing 76.7 this season, after a 17-15 season in which the Rams scored 69.8 and allowed a stingy 65.5. Blending the two seasons for both teams, Fordham rates plus 1.5 points a game and LIU minus 5.2. That is a favorite's edge, and it is also roughly half of what a 12.5-point spread claims.

Daquan Davis leads LIU at 14.2 points a game, Vasean Allette creates at 5.8 assists a game, and Tyrell Bowles leads the Sharks at 7.0 rebounds a game. Fordham's engine is Amir Lindsey, whose 7.0 assists a game lead this matchup, with Lateef Patrick Jr. the Rams' top scorer at 16.0 points a game and Rikus Schulte matching Bowles at 7.0 rebounds a game. Davis, Allette, Bowles, Patrick, Lindsey, and Schulte all carry no injury designations into this game.

The setting is Rose Hill Gym in the Bronx, a small, loud building where a favorite feeds on early runs, and where a road team that starts well can quiet the crowd quickly. LIU has not started well once this season, which is the real test of the points here.

Key Factors

The first factor is the distance between Fordham's price and Fordham's profile. The Rams allow 76.7 points a game this season, a sharp step back from last season's 65.5, and a favorite that leaks points has to keep scoring for forty minutes to build a double-digit margin. Our blend of the two seasons puts the real gap between these teams at 6.7 points, and the market is asking Fordham to nearly double it.

The second factor is Allette. A winless team's best friend is a guard who can organize a half-court offense against pressure, and Allette's 5.8 assists a game say LIU has one. If the Sharks get into their sets and Davis shoots closer to the level his 14.2 average suggests, the road team has a way to answer runs instead of folding under them, which is how 0-4 teams usually lose big.

The honest counterpoint is that LIU's offense has been bad in a way that travels. Scoring 61.5 a game through four games is not bad luck; it is four games of evidence, and Fordham held opponents to 65.5 a game last season with largely this identity. If the Rams' defense plays at that level in its own gym, the Sharks stall early and the spread is gone by halftime. The case for the points is that four games is still a small piece of a season for a team that scored 73.6 a game across thirty-five games last winter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.