Stonehill Skyhawks vs Fordham Rams Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Fordham lays a big home number after scoring in the sixties at Kansas. Stonehill arrives unbeaten with three players who scored in double figures efficiently in its opener, and confidence matters in a small gym.

The Matchup

Stonehill visits Fordham on Thursday night at Rose Hill Gym in the Bronx, with Fordham a 16.5-point favorite, a total of 143.5, on ESPN+. Stonehill is 1-0. Fordham is 0-1 after opening at Kansas.

Last season Stonehill finished 12-21, scoring 66.4 points a game and allowing 68.6. Fordham finished 17-15, scoring 69.8 and allowing 65.5. Fordham was the better defensive team last season, and that is the honest foundation of this price, along with home court in a small, loud gym.

The openers need context on both sides. Stonehill beat Curry 84-56 and scored easily. Fordham lost 95-65 at Kansas, one of the hardest road spots in the sport. Neither result tells the whole story, but together they explain why a confident road team is catching a number priced off last season more than off anything seen this week.

Key Factors

Stonehill's scoring was balanced and efficient, which is exactly what a big underdog needs. Jack Medalie scored 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting with 8 rebounds against Curry. Felipe Patino scored 15 on 6-of-10, and Anquan Boldin Jr. scored 15 on 5-of-7 with 2 blocks. Three different players scoring that cleanly means Fordham cannot erase one option and watch the offense die. Somebody on this roster can find a basket in most stretches.

Fordham's offense is the question the favorite has to answer. The Rams scored 65 points at Kansas. Akira Jacobs was excellent, scoring 20 points and hitting 5-of-6 from three, but Amir Lindsey scored 3 points on 1-of-12 shooting while leading the team with 7 assists. When the primary ball handler cannot score, a defense can stay home on Jacobs, and a favorite that relies on one hot shooter has a hard time building a seventeen point margin.

The counterpoint is the step up in competition, and it is real. Stonehill's 84 points came against Curry, not against an Atlantic 10 defense, and Fordham allowed only 65.5 points a game last season. Jacobs scoring 20 at Kansas shows Fordham has the best individual shooter in this game, and Rose Hill is a tight gym that rattles visiting teams.

If Fordham's defense locks in early, Stonehill's efficiency disappears fast. The bet is that Stonehill's balance travels well enough to trade baskets for long stretches, and trading baskets is all a team catching this many points has to do.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.