Longwood Lancers vs Old Dominion Monarchs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Longwood is scoring 94.3 points a game behind Alphonzo Billups III, and unbeaten Old Dominion is allowing just 54.5 a game. Something has to give at Chartway Arena.

The Matchup

Longwood visits Old Dominion on Saturday at 3:00 PM CT at Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Virginia, on ESPN+, with Old Dominion a 7.5-point favorite and a total of 143.5. The moneyline is off the board at ESPN. It is a meeting of two loud early starts: the Lancers have won with offense, the Monarchs with defense.

Old Dominion is 4-0 out of the Sun Belt Conference, scoring 76.3 points a game and allowing 54.5 this season, the stingiest defensive number in this matchup by a wide margin. Last season's Monarchs went 12-21 while scoring 76.2 a game and allowing 77.9, so a defense this tight is a sharp break from what this program was a year ago, and four games is a short time to declare it permanent.

Zacch Wiggins leads Old Dominion at 14.0 points a game, Khoi Thurmon leads the Monarchs at 4.8 assists a game, and Jared Turner leads them at 6.0 rebounds a game. Wiggins, Thurmon, and Turner carry no injury designations into this game.

Longwood is 3-1 out of the Big South Conference, scoring 94.3 points a game and allowing 67.3 this season. The Lancers built most of that margin at home, where they are 3-0, and their one road game is also their one loss, which is the honest warning label on the scoring average.

Last season's Longwood team went 16-16, scoring 77.7 a game and allowing 74.1. Alphonzo Billups III leads Longwood at 15.5 points and 2.5 assists a game, and Jaylen Benard leads the Lancers at 8.8 rebounds a game. Billups and Benard carry no injury designations into this game, and Longwood averages 48.8 rebounds and 19.0 assists a game.

Key Factors

The first factor is whether Old Dominion's defense can slow a team that shares the ball this well. Longwood hands out 19.0 assists a game and shoots 48 percent as a team, so the Lancers rarely depend on one contested shot late in the clock. Billups creates the first advantage and Benard, at 8.8 rebounds a game, turns misses into second chances against a Monarchs team whose leading rebounder, Turner, pulls down 6.0 a game.

The second factor is the glass inside a 143.5 total. Longwood averages 48.8 rebounds a game to Old Dominion's 38.8, a ten-rebound gap that is hard for even a good defense to survive over 40 minutes. Extra possessions are how a road underdog stays attached, and they are also how a favorite that wants a low-scoring game loses control of the tempo it prefers.

The honest counterpoint is that Old Dominion is 4-0 for a reason, and 54.5 points allowed a game, even in four games, does not happen by accident. Longwood's one trip away from home ended in a loss, and Chartway Arena will test a young offense in a way its home floor has not. If Thurmon controls the pace and the Monarchs turn this into a half-court grind, the Lancers' scoring average will shrink fast. Longwood needs its rebounding edge to show up early and keep the game from becoming a walk.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.