Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Saint Joseph's won 24 games last season and opens at home, but Longwood's deep roster already has a game in its legs, and openers are rarely as clean as a 9.5-point spread assumes.
The Matchup
Longwood visits Saint Joseph's on Wednesday night at Hagan Arena in Philadelphia, where the Hawks are a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 149.5, on ESPN+. Saint Joseph's won 24 games last season and has not played yet this one. Longwood won 16 games last season, and the Lancers have already played a game this week, even if it was a soft one.
Saint Joseph's finished 24-12 last season, scoring 73.1 points a game and allowing 70.3. Two of the players who closed that season are back in the middle of this one. Austin Williford scored 17 points with 5 three-pointers against VCU in the Atlantic 10 tournament in March, and Jaiden Glover-Toscano scored 14 in the same game. The Hawks defend their home floor and play at a controlled pace, and a rested home team in its opener is a comfortable favorite for a reason.
Longwood's opener needs an asterisk, and it gets one here. The Lancers beat Pfeiffer 123-67 on Monday, and Pfeiffer is not a Division I opponent, so the margin proves little. The shape still counts for something. Fifteen Lancers played, the starters were done early, and Jaylen Benard scored 14 points with 10 rebounds while MJ Williams added 12 points and 5 assists. Longwood finished 16-16 last season, scoring 77.7 a game and allowing 74.1, and its depth just got a full game of reps that Saint Joseph's has not had.
Key Factors
Reps are Longwood's edge. Saint Joseph's has not played a real game since March, and openers are usually ragged, with new rotations and early foul trouble. Longwood's raggedness, whatever is left of it, got worked out on Monday, even against a weak opponent. A road underdog that has already run its offense at game speed is a different bet from one walking in cold.
The pace fight matters. Saint Joseph's scored 73.1 a game last season and prefers a controlled game. Longwood scored 77.7 and is happy to trade baskets. In a faster game, 9.5 points shrink, because both teams get more chances and the favorite's edge has to be re-earned on more possessions. If Benard rebounds the way he did on Monday and Longwood's guards keep the tempo up, the Lancers stay inside this number.
The counterpoint is real. Longwood's opener may have taught the Lancers nothing, because Pfeiffer could not test them, and Saint Joseph's is a steep step up in size and discipline. Williford and Glover-Toscano have both produced in big conference games, and if the Hawks' defense turns Longwood over early, the home favorite can separate fast.
Saint Joseph's is rested and at home, but the Hawks are playing their first game since March against a deep road team that has already run at game speed this week. In an opener, that gap is worth points. Take Longwood Lancers +9.5 at -108.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/4) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ |
| Venue | Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia |
| Spread | Saint Joseph's Hawks -9.5 |
| Total | 149.5 |
| Moneyline | Saint Joseph's Hawks -410 |
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