Los Angeles Kings vs New York Rangers Prediction: Best Bet for Monday

The Rangers are 6-0-0 at Madison Square Garden, and they have built that record without Igor Shesterkin, who is on injured reserve while Dylan Garand holds the crease. Los Angeles arrives scoring 2.33 goals per game with a 65.5 percent penalty kill, so Monday night asks whether home form by itself can turn a good team into a two-goal favorite.

The Matchup

The Rangers have two records this season, and the split is the building. New York is 7-5-1 overall but 6-0-0 at Madison Square Garden, where it has won every game it has played, and 1-5-1 on the road. The home version gets scoring from the top of the lineup.

Alexis Lafreniere leads the Rangers with 9 goals, and Adam Fox has 16 assists in 13 games without scoring a goal himself, which tells you how this offense works. Fox moves the puck, Lafreniere and Mika Zibanejad, who has 11 points, finish the plays he starts. New York scores 3.15 goals per game and allows 2.77, a plus-0.38 differential that understates how different the team looks in its own rink.

The crease is the honest complication. Igor Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Joonas Korpisalo is also on injured reserve with a foot injury, so the Rangers' net belongs to Dylan Garand. Garand has handled it well. He is 4-4-1 in eight starts with a 2.65 goals-against average, a .900 save percentage and a shutout, numbers a contender can win with.

What Garand has not done is protect a margin lately. The Rangers lost 5-4 to Toronto on Thursday and 7-4 at Ottawa on Saturday, allowing 12 goals in two games, and that slide is the reason a 6-0-0 home team is being asked about its defense at all.

Los Angeles brings the opposite problem. The Kings score 2.33 goals per game, the lowest output in this game by nearly a goal, and their offense runs through a short list. Artemi Panarin leads Los Angeles with 6 goals and 9 points, Adrian Kempe has 8 points, and nobody else has more than 7.

The Kings lost 3-1 at New Jersey on Saturday, a third loss in five games, and both teams had Sunday off, so neither side can claim a rest edge. What Los Angeles does do is keep road games close. The Kings are 2-2-2 away from home, a record full of one-goal games and overtime losses, and that habit matters a great deal when the other side needs to win by two.

Key Factors

Special teams point one way, and it is not close. The Rangers kill penalties at 92.3 percent, and Los Angeles converts on the power play at just 14.8 percent, so the Kings' best route to cheap goals runs into the strongest part of New York's game. At the other end, the Kings kill at 65.5 percent, the weakest mark on Monday's slate, and Fox quarterbacks a Rangers power play that does not need to be great to punish a kill that leaky. He only needs it to be ordinary, and ordinary against 65.5 percent produces goals.

Goaltending quietly favors the home team too, even with Shesterkin out. Garand's 2.65 goals-against average and .900 save percentage sit well ahead of what Los Angeles has gotten from Darcy Kuemper, who is at 3.55 and .890 in six starts. Anton Forsberg has been better for the Kings at 2.48 in three starts, but Los Angeles has leaned on Kuemper as its starter, and neither Kings goalie changes the scoring problem in front of him.

Availability trims Los Angeles further. Kevin Fiala is on injured reserve with a lower-leg injury, which removes a top-six winger from an offense that was already short on finishers. Quinton Byfield is day to day with an upper-body injury. He has 2 points in seven games, and his size in the middle is part of how the Kings protect close games.

Keep an eye on whether Byfield plays before placing a bet. The counterpoint is real and it is the whole risk in this pick. The Kings collect points on the road by dragging games to overtime, the Rangers have allowed 12 goals in two games with a backup in net, and a puck line dies in exactly the kind of 3-2 game Los Angeles plays on the road. If Panarin gets the Kings' power play going early, New York spends the night chasing a margin instead of building one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.