Los Angeles Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Opening Week

The Lakers bring a 121.9-points-per-game offense to Atlanta on the second night of a back-to-back, and they bring it without Luka Doncic, who is out with back soreness. Atlanta has won four straight and had Sunday off at home, and the tension at State Farm Arena is whether a 9-2 team still scores like one with its engine on the shelf.

The Matchup

The Lakers are 9-2, score 121.9 points per game and allow 114.5, and almost all of that scoring runs through one man. Luka Doncic leads Los Angeles at 40.1 points and 7.7 assists per game, and Doncic is out tonight with back soreness. That leaves the offense in the hands of Austin Reaves and Walker Kessler, who leads the team at 10.4 rebounds per game, one night after a 121-116 win at Detroit on Sunday. Quentin Grimes is day-to-day with a finger injury. Keep an eye on whether Grimes plays before placing a bet.

Atlanta is 7-4, scores 118.6 and allows 115.5, and the Hawks have won four straight, the last a 124-121 win over Brooklyn on Saturday. Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads Atlanta at 22.1 points per game, and Jalen Johnson does a little of everything at 8.8 rebounds and a team-high 7.6 assists per game.

Atlanta's injury list is long but shallow: Asa Newell, Keshon Gilbert, Jock Landale, Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar are all out, and none of them leads the team in a single category. Johnson and Alexander-Walker carry no injury designations.

Both teams have played 11 games, so these are this season's numbers with nothing carried over. DraftKings makes Los Angeles a 2.5-point road favorite at State Farm Arena, with a total of 235.5 and the Lakers at -138 on the moneyline.

Key Factors

The rest gap is the first thing on the page. Los Angeles played Sunday night in Detroit and flew south; Atlanta last played Saturday and has been home waiting. Back-to-backs punish the exact thing the Lakers now lack, a second creator who can manufacture a good shot when legs go, and with Doncic out the half-court offense has to be built possession by possession by Reaves.

The scoring environment says this game stays loose. The two teams average 240.5 combined points scored per game, and Atlanta allows 115.5 a night, so the Lakers' remaining shooters will get their looks. What Atlanta asks in return is whether Los Angeles, allowing 114.5 itself, can guard Johnson in transition after made baskets, where tired teams are slowest to match up.

What beats the home side is simple enough. Los Angeles is 9-2 for a reason, and a deep rotation can survive one star's absence for one night, especially against a defense that has been generous all season. If Reaves runs the offense cleanly and Kessler owns the glass, the Lakers can win a shootout on talent alone. Atlanta's case asks for the more ordinary thing, a rested home team keeping a tired, short-handed visitor inside one possession all night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.